Specialist
Senior executive at BuiltPlace Ltd
Agenda
- Market evolution and demand outlook for UK residential housing, highlighting implications of the macro environment
- Regional differences and transaction volumes
- Scenario analysis on housing pricing and mortgages
- Government policies and housing supply mechanics
Questions
1.
What happened to UK residential housing in the pandemic, and why might that impact where we are today?
2.
How much of an increase in demand do you think the stamp duty holiday had? What’s happening now?
3.
I’m surprised that demand is still above pre-pandemic norms. What’s happening now? Are lead times starting to increase? When you publish a property on Rightmove, how many days on average is it taking to sell?
4.
What’s the average tenure of a fixed mortgage rate? How many years can you take that out for?
5.
How can you see rate rises impacting the residential housing market?
6.
Do property owners stand a chance? Obviously, there are higher energy prices, a cost of living crisis and mortgage repayments potentially doubling, tripling or maybe more in some instances. What can you see happening?
7.
Are there any signs of strength in the current market? Is there anything that gives you hope?
8.
What’s your view on the BoE’s [Bank of England’s] relaxation of mortgage affordability tests recently?
9.
Historically, how long has it taken for higher interest rates to put some downwards pressure on house prices?
10.
What impact do you think the buy-to-let market will have? If a landlord has a mortgage at 2.5% with rental income just about covering mortgage repayments and is due to re-mortgage at 5%-plus, their mortgage has increased by almost double digits. Can you see them increasing rents by double digits, or might they decide to sell their buy-to-let property because it doesn’t make economic sense anymore? How can you see that dynamic playing out?
11.
Do you have an opinion on housebuilder sensitivity to land book values and house price declines, so in a situation of harsh house price decline? When would you expect the industry to stop writing down the value of land?
12.
It’s interesting that land values have lagged so far behind. Do you think that suggests there’s more of a correction to come in housing prices?
13.
When can you see the mortgage market drying up? Obviously, banks are not as willing to lend anymore. A few lenders withdrew policies or mortgage rates offerings last week. What do you think will happen now? Is there a risk that some people will go to refinance their mortgage and won’t be able to at all?
14.
Are there any key regional differences across deposit-to-income, loan-to-income and house price-to-income?
15.
What do you see happening in the UK residential housing market in the coming months and years?
16.
Do you think Liz Truss’s government will do enough or is ready to respond to a scenario such as the one you’re describing?
17.
What are your thoughts on Truss’s stamp duty changes?
18.
Can you see further housing benefit uplifts? If so, in what shape and form might those materialise?
19.
To what extent do you think homebuilders can control costs to maintain and protect their margins?
20.
How can you see volume and pricing dynamics on new housebuilding playing out in the next 12-18 months? Do you think enough new housing will come online?
21.
Is the current situation slightly different to 2008? Can you see any similarities?
22.
Is there anything we haven’t covered on UK residential housing that you’re finding very interesting? What else will you be monitoring?
