Specialist
Former executive at HSBC
Agenda
- Macroeconomic impact on UK credit conditions and quality
- Saving patterns post-pandemic and debt vulnerability evolutions
- UK household spending patterns and consumer confidence dynamics
- Labour market strengths and weaknesses
Questions
1.
Why is UK household spending and consumer credit so important today?
2.
Has lending to households always accounted for around 70% of total UK lending, or has that been changing recently?
3.
Is consumer credit still important today?
4.
What did the landscape for household dynamics and consumer credit look like before coronavirus?
5.
What was UK households’ response to the pandemic?
6.
What do pandemic trends mean for the UK economy now?
7.
The dynamics you’re discussing sound relatively good, but how is inflation affecting them? How is seeing 9.1 CPI points impacting household behaviour?
8.
How could the inflationary impact affect UK households?
9.
Do you think more recent OBR [Ofice for Budget Responsibility] and Bank of England forecasts are relatively accurate, or could they be worse or better?
10.
What will be the impact of inflation on household spending?
11.
When do you think saving levels could potentially be depleted at current consumption if ceteris paribus is assumed with the current inflation we’ve got as well as energy bills?
12.
What are your thoughts on households who don’t have any excess savings, considering financial inequality across the UK?
13.
Low-income households’ main share of income is presumably mainly spent on essentials. How can you see their spending evolving?
14.
Do you expect that meaningful tax relief is needed to support low-income households? What are the options for low-income to add additional borrowing affordability? It doesn’t really sound as if it’s there.
15.
Until the potential fiscal response, there seems to be a pretty negative outlook for UK banks. What are your thoughts?
16.
Do you think a rate rise will be needed to tame inflation? Historically, to reach lower inflation you’ve had to raise the bank rate above CPI.
17.
Do you have a view on the Bank of England’s decision to move away from the mortgage affordability test it introduced post the GFC [Global Financial Crisis]?
18.
Do you have a view on the UK labour market?
19.
We’ve just experienced the Great Resignation, surely that should mean consumer confidence is relatively high? How could consumer confidence evolve in a much more uncertain environment?
20.
How would you summarise the outlook for the UK economy and some key headwinds or tailwinds?
21.
Is there anything that we haven’t touched on or that you want to draw particular pertinence to?
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