Specialist
Former executive at HSBC
Agenda
- Macroeconomic impact on Eurozone credit conditions and quality
- Currency area macro divergences and implications
- Debt vulnerability evolutions and high-risk household difficulties
- European household spending patterns and consumer confidence dynamics
Questions
1.
Why is household spending and consumer credit relevant to the Eurozone?
2.
Are there any key regional differences within the Eurozone, and how important are they?
3.
How does household expenditure differ in the Eurozone?
4.
Is the corporate sector also less levered in the Eurozone?
5.
What impact did the pandemic have on Eurozone household dynamics and consumer credit?
6.
Where could you see the Eurozone environment evolving from now? Are there any possible scenarios you can see occurring?
7.
We’ve touched on the impact of inflation, but how will that impact the Eurozone?
8.
How important do you think food and energy prices are within the current inflationary dynamic?
9.
Are there any regional differences around energy price impacts?
10.
How can we expect Eurozone governments to respond to the current environment?
11.
Do you think government strategies might evolve and change?
12.
How can you see Eurozone households responding to the current environment?
13.
What was the growth rate of borrowings for Austria, Portugal, France and Spain, and what’s a lower growth rate?
14.
How long do you think excess savings could support the Eurozone?
15.
How do Eurozone savings differ from UK savings?
16.
What could happen to the group of people that don’t have any excess savings?
17.
You’ve mentioned quite a large proportion of people at high risk in the Eurozone. How can you see them responding to the current environment?
18.
Is it possible that a large portion of people in the Eurozone will not have access to the credit they need in the future?
19.
How do you assess vulnerabilities in the Eurozone?
20.
I never realised Italy’s household debt ratio is only 64%. Do you know why it’s much lower?
21.
The dynamics you’ve just mentioned seem to be good news for Eurozone banks. Would you agree?
22.
Can you see any wider risks to Eurozone financial stability occurring?
23.
Could you clarify what you mean by FIRE [financial institutions and real estate]- and Coco [consumer corporate]-based lending?
24.
Can you tell anything from monitoring banks about consumer confidence or household uncertainty?
25.
If consumer competence is collapsing, we might assume households would be repaying consumer credit at a higher rate. Do you think it’s plausible that consumers don’t have the budget to repay or meet those debt repayments and that’s why they’re not repaying their consumer credit lines?
26.
What indicators have you been looking at in the Eurozone mortgage markets?
27.
What are your more contrarian views on Italy?
28.
What are the key headwinds and tailwinds facing the Eurozone, and how do they compare to or differ from those in the UK?
29.
Do you think the Eurozone can survive the current macroeconomic environment?
