Specialist
Senior Fellow at Adam Smith Institute
Agenda
- Impact of new fiscal strategy and regime, discussing Prime Minister Liz Truss’s goals and agenda
- Horizon of general election probability and potential for second Scottish independence referendum
- 23 September 2022 mini-budget proposal examination
- Tax cut and energy price cap policy analysis
- Outlook for Truss’s strategies, including effects on UK-EU relations
Questions
1.
What do you think the change in UK regime will look like post the exit of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson? What can we expect to start seeing from Prime Minister Liz Truss going forwards?
2.
How far do you think Truss will live up to her rhetoric?
3.
Do you think Truss can manage a divided group of MPs [Members of Parliament], specifically in her party who perhaps didn’t vote for her?
4.
What do you think is the probability of an early general election occurring in the UK?
5.
Where can you see the UK exchange rate stabilising? Obviously, the pound took a bit of a dive on Truss’s announcement of being the next Prime Minister.
6.
How long do you think an export boom could take to start showing positive signs?
7.
In some instances in Truss’s election campaign, she was speaking about looking at changing the Bank of England mandate or how that interacts with the government. Can you see her focusing on trying to do that?
8.
The Bank of England was given more independence when its remit was last set in the 1990s , so it wasn’t tethered to political election cycles. What different mandates might Truss give it?
9.
Could you potentially see Truss relying more on the Bank of England for government fiscal spending programmes?
10.
How long might elevated supply-side pressures last for?
11.
How do you think Truss can or will manage industrial action? Obviously, we’ve had prolonged rail strikes. How can you see her trying to circumvent that? Will she be raising the wages offered?
12.
How can you see Truss dealing with Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and the threat of a second Scottish independence referendum?
13.
Do you think Truss’s energy package is right? It was announced at GBP 150bn, GBP 130bn I think just for the general economy, with GBP 21bn targeted for businesses and that may go up to GBP 42bn over six months. How can you see that evolving? Does it seem far-reaching enough? Is it the right strategy to tackle the energy crisis we’re facing?
14.
Do you think alternatives to the current energy policy are likely to be passed through to government in any shape or form?
15.
How can you see Truss supporting the cost of living crisis?
16.
Borrowing was already double what it was expected to be in August 2022. The mini budget, which is going to be announced on 23 September, is thought of as unsustainable by the IFS [Institute for Fiscal Studies] and Citigroup. They think there’s going to be a GBP 60bn hole. We have a current account deficit, which has widened, highlighting our dependency on imports, which also could worsen. This obviously leads to risk to growth, which can undermine the confidence in the economy, gilts and sterling. How can Truss manage that? Do you think her policies are right?
17.
Do you think Truss believes debt doesn’t matter if it’s needed to reach her GDP growth target? What cost might that come at? Would you say it’s a prudent way to run a more mature economy?
18.
Truss has said the government would like to reach a 2.5% internal average of GDP growth over her tenure. To me, that means we’re going to need an overshoot, and it has to happen in a short time frame. What is the probability of her hitting that 2.5% target?
19.
We’ve just had the Great Resignation through the pandemic, and slightly post-pandemic. Do you think Truss will focus on trying to incentivise people to re-enter the labour market?
20.
Is there anything else you would like to touch on?
21.
What are your thoughts on the Northern Ireland protocol? I believe Truss is aiming to resolve this by Easter 2023. Do you think it’s achievable? How can you envision Truss behaving towards Brussels going forwards?
22.
What do you think Truss will be like towards the EU? How can you see the UK’s trade relationship with it evolving? Can you see some tensions flaring?
23.
Over what time frame would you expect any potential new trade deals to come online? Where can you see Truss targeting points?
24.
Do you think Truss is going about controlling inflation the right way? Will her policies control inflation or will most fiscal stimuli stoke it?
25.
Can you see Truss doing a lot to help younger people and housing? Obviously, planning permission will help with that, if she relaxes that regulation. Could she do any more for more targeted fiscal support?
26.
Is there anything interesting and relevant around Truss and the UK economy going forwards that we haven’t touched upon?
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