Specialist
Former VP at Lam Research Corp
Agenda
- Implications of EUV (extreme ultraviolet) adoption and node shrinkage on share dynamics and market positioning for semicap (semiconductor capital) equipment vendors, in etch, deposition, process control and other factors
- Capital equipment spend cycle analysis and growth outlook, including implications of chip shortages
- US-China relations, protectionist semiconductor manufacturing policy, global supply chain integrity and risk for major semicap equipment suppliers
- Long-term market outlook and supply-demand dynamics
Questions
1.
What’s your outlook for chip-making equipment demand in H2 2021 and into 2022? How would you describe the market environment and the implications of the chip shortage?
2.
Where are we in the capital equipment spending cycle? How long do you expect the tailwinds from this current period to last? Do you expect the growth pace in semiconductor capital equipment spend to fall off? Intel and TSMC announced big spending plans, spanning the next few years. What are your expectations for the cycle? To what extent is it different from what’s happened in the past?
3.
Do you think that there will be a more even capital intensity cycle vs more cyclical and fluctuating past capital intensity cycles? Do you expect less variability around capital intensity? What is the risk that capital intensity falls off earlier or later than expected?
4.
You mentioned aggressive plans by Intel and TSMC to increase capacity on the logic side. You also referenced limiting factors that could prevent them from doing that as quickly as they might like. To what extent are the toolmakers themselves a bottleneck for those processes vs what other factors might prevent them from ramping capacity as quickly as they would like?
5.
Could you outline the state of supply and demand in the toolmaking sector, subdividing between 300mm vs 200mm equipment?
6.
Could you elaborate on the 300mm equipment and the lead times for that type of equipment? Have they stretched out?
7.
What are your thoughts on Intel’s entrance into the foundry market? To what extent do you consider the company a credible player or one that could have a significant impact on the foundry market? Over what time period do you expect that to play out? How would you compare the company to TSMC from a technology standpoint and more generally?
8.
What do you expect Intel’s foundry business to be like in 2-3 or 5 years? Do you expect performance to be more anaemic than the company would like, based on the limiting factors you’ve discussed? What are your expectations for its performance in 2-3 years?
9.
To what extent do geopolitical factors and tariffs impact how major foundry players or IDMs [integrated device manufacturers] think about supply chains? What are the political risks around Taiwan and how that’s impacting discussions in the critical suppliers for the semiconductor supply chain, such as tool manufacturers?
10.
There’s been more of a public conversation in the US recently around domestic supply for manufacturing semiconductors, with announcements from TSMC to have a fab in the US and signs that the issue is entering policy discussions. To what extent do you expect the US government to subsidise and support US domestic semiconductor manufacturing capacity? How might that protectionism impact capital intensity? Could that extend to the 15% capital intensity range that we discussed?
11.
What are your thoughts on the major players in the sector today such as Lam, Applied, KLA and Tokyo Electron? How might share dynamics unfold over the next few years among some of the major players, given the tech transitions such as the increased adoption of EUV [extreme ultraviolet]? In which areas do you expect strong portfolios will drive share shifts in ways that might not be appreciated?
12.
Could you comment on deposition trends? How is Applied positioned in the PVD [physical vapor deposition], CVD [chemical vapor deposition] and ALD [atomic layer deposition] segments? How might the dynamics across those segments play out vs Lam? Are there opportunities for anyone to take the lead? Do you expect an outside player to come in and do so?
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