Specialist
Former executive at Korian SA
Agenda
- The recently released Gravediggers investigation book, including accusations and read-through to other French care home players such as Korian (PAR: KORI)
- Orpea's (PAR: ORP) future positioning in the French care home market and likely parliamentary investigation
- Orpea CEO's recent termination and senior management outlook
- Future regulation's implications for the French care home market, highlighting potential impact of 2022 presidential election
Questions
1.
What are the key 3-5 findings from the latest news flow surrounding the Orpea scandal in France?
2.
How long might it take for the various lawsuits and investigations to play out?
3.
What has been the impact of Gravediggers on other players in the French care home market such as Korian and Colisée? Do you think legal investigations will be opened for other players?
4.
It seems the major impacts of the scandal will be experienced by Orpea in the short term, perhaps through 2022-23. How might this impact Orpea’s short-to-mid-term market position?
5.
Do you think Gravediggers could impact Orpea’s position internationally?
6.
How long might the collective action against Orpea and Korian take and how much could they pay? What might be the financial implications of that?
7.
What occupancy rate are Orpea’s care homes running at and what is your 1-2-year outlook?
8.
Where do you think we are in home care volumes in France and what’s your 3-5-year outlook on home care growth?
9.
What percentage drop would you expect if occupancy volumes drop over 2022-23?
10.
You expect Orpea’s occupancy rates to run around 80-85% from 2022-23. Would you say that’s worst case, or what is your worst-case outlook?
11.
What’s your outlook for Orpea’s short-to-mid-term growth? What do you think could contribute to growth in 2022 and beyond?
12.
What increase do you expect in purchasing costs?
13.
How do you think the union investigation will limit Orpea’s recruitment or retention ability? How disadvantaged will this make Orpea in the job market?
14.
How is caregiver availability trending in the French care home market? Is there any wage inflation here? How might that develop over the next 3-5 years?
15.
How are Orpea’s assets spread geographically across France? How concentrated are they around Paris vs the rest of the country?
16.
What 3-5 key factors could lead to a sell-off of some of Orpea’s assets?
17.
What might be the longer-term impacts of this scandal, particularly on regulations and the wider sector? How might those implications differ depending on who gets elected in this year’s French presidential election campaign?
18.
Do you think there could be a shift in the split of public vs not-for-profit vs profit care homes in the French market over the next 3-5 years?
19.
What incentive do the French government and the public have to keep for-profit facilities running?
20.
Yves Le Masne was recently replaced by Philippe Charrierat as CEO at Orpea following the accusations. Do you think there will be further management shift over the next year?
21.
How do you rate Orpea’s management’s ability to deal with the accusations levelled at the company?
22.
How can we think about Orpea’s future growth opportunities? What’s your medium-to-long-term outlook for the company? Where might it focus to drive growth?
23.
Which international regions do you think will be key growth drivers for Orpea over the next 3-5 years?
24.
What 3-5 KPIs do you think investors should monitor over the next 1-2 years around Orpea and the wider French care home market?
