Specialist
Technical Consultant at Hella KGaA Hueck & Co
Agenda
- Impact on Tier 1 and OEM (original equipment manufacturer) production volumes
- ASPs and double-booking trends
- Capacity growth trends and potential for mid-term oversupply
- Mitigating factors and workarounds for tier 1s and OEMs
- Outlook on silicon content as EV (electric vehicle) and ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems) adoption increases
- Competitive positioning of Infineon vs Cree (NASDAQ: CREE), Renesas, STMicroelectronics (TAA:STM), NXP (NXPI) and others
Questions
1.
What is your outlook for the ongoing semiconductor shortage across industries, especially within automotive? When do you expect the shortage to end?
2.
Is the shortage a broader issue that impacts the entire market or only certain components?
3.
How is the broader shortage impacting the pricing of these components, particularly MCUs [microcontroller units] and MOSFETs [metal-oxide semiconductor field-effect transistors]?
4.
How much has semiconductor pricing increased due to the shortage?
5.
Which semiconductor devices do you think are likely to remain tightest for longest in terms of supply? Where are lead times and where do you think they could top out for some of these important devices?
6.
Where are lead times currently? Do you expect lead times to get longer?
7.
Do you expect an improvement in the supply-demand dynamic between 2022-23 and 2025, or do you expect the tightness in the market to persist for the duration?
8.
How are tier 1s and OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] trying to manage their inventory? How much of an impact do you think double booking is having on semiconductor manufacturers’ capacity allocation?
9.
What inventory levels do tier 1s and OEMs try to work with? How many weeks or months of inventory do they try to have?
10.
Do you think OEMs and tier 1s will try to work with structurally higher levels of inventory in future to guard against production shutdowns across companies as a result of component shortages?
11.
How much do you think double booking is contributing to the current semiconductor shortage?
12.
With lead times of up to 52 weeks for certain components, do you think there is a risk that capacity is being allocated on the basis of future output that may not be realised? What would happen in that situation? Do you expect oversupply in certain categories in a couple of years?
13.
How are tier 1s, and to an extent OEMs, mitigating the risk of components not being available in time? How are tier 1s avoiding incurring fines from OEMs?
14.
Which semiconductor suppliers do you think are best-positioned to continue meeting the requirements of tier 1 and OEM customers within the automotive sector?
15.
Do you think Infineon’s Aurix ecosystem is well-positioned for growth? What kind of market share do you think Infineon has within the MCU market?
16.
What do you think is Infineon’s market share in the automotive sector, particularly on the MCUs?
17.
What is underlying the Renesas to Infineon shift? Is it a stronger product portfolio with Infineon or enhanced capabilities vs peers?
18.
Is Infineon the leader in the MCU ecosystem? If OEMs are moving towards fewer different platforms for their different makes and models, does that benefit Infineon over its peers? Are there any other participants that would be relevant in relation to that broader shift towards a smaller number of platforms being used to manufacture more models?
19.
What are your thoughts on the growth of silicon carbide content within EVs [electric vehicles]? How quickly do you expect silicon carbide to grow as new EV models are rolled out in increasing volumes?
20.
How would you compare Infineon’s competitive positioning within inverters to STMicro, given that it had a slight head start due to its relationship with Tesla?
21.
How much of a lead do you think STMicro has in silicon carbide? How many years of product development do you think it would take for Infineon to catch up and offer a similar competitive product?
22.
What sort of share does the inverter typically represent of the chip content within an EV?
