Executive at Elroy Air Inc
- Strategic outlook including competitive landscape and industry trends
- Technological innovation – eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) viability and production outlook
- Growth opportunities and strategic partnership dynamics
- 12-18-month outlook
Could we start with an overview of the eVTOL [electric vertical take-off and landing] market? Who are the key players, and how is the market split by commercial vs cargo applications? How should we size the overall TAM, given some estimates place it at about USD 1.5tn?
How does the outlook and timeline for eVTOL technology adoption differ across verticals, whether commercial, cargo or even military or commercial airline applications?
Could you elaborate on the DoD’s [Department of Defense’s] interest in the eVTOL market, given Archer Aviation has noted the potential for military applications?
How are you assessing Archer’s market positioning, particularly its decision to go public via SPAC? What are the trade-offs for the company, if any?
Archer has a reported equity value of around USD 3.8bn, expecting material revenue in 2025. How are you assessing that valuation contrasted with its positioning in the business cycle?
Could you break down Archer’s competitive landscape? How would you characterise the competition from Joby, Lilium, Volocopter and some of the other players you referenced?
What is your outlook for the success of the two potential revenue streams Archer has noted – selling directly to OEMs, and Archer UAM [urban air mobility], its ride-share? The company is projecting that UAM – where it will operate the vehicles itself, and thus incur operating costs – will be three times more profitable than selling directly to OEMs over the life of the aircraft.
Do you think Archer’s partnership with United Airlines will aid its ability to achieve FAA certification and access maintenance services?
How are you assessing Archer’s timeline of late 2020s for an autonomous vehicle, given the limited certification framework for passenger autonomous vehicles?
Archer’s plans for the ride-share service rely on pre-existing, retrofitted infrastructure. How will this affect the regulatory process? How might this also inform the timeline for building out to vertiports, and the ability to build its own infrastructure necessary to scale the UAM?
How should we frame Archer’s reliance on lithium-ion batteries via its Meru battery system? How does that introduce an additional factor to its certification and scalability?
Archer’s projected annual unit economics for its UAM offering are USD 2.4m in revenue, USD 1.4m in operating costs and USD 1.1m in operating revenue per ride-share vehicle. Does that forecast make sense to you? How will that eventually play into pricing pressure and the company’s ideal margins?
How are you assessing Archer’s estimate of USD 1bn in revenue by 2025 and over USD 7bn by 2029? Do you think that’s too aggressive, given your comments on timelines often being continuously pushed out?
Do you think Archer can ramp up production quickly enough to meet United’s order of 200 platforms in a reasonable time? The company anticipates the first deliveries in 2024, and the opening of its manufacturing facility in 2022.
How should we assess Archer’s mass-manufacturing timeline? What makes its design so much less complex than Joby’s, as Archer suggests in its investor deck? How easily could it vertically integrate some manufacturing components, leveraging its partnership with Stellantis?
Do you think it was necessary for Archer to partner with Stellantis to achieve its goals? Do you also anticipate that further partnerships will be a necessary or valuable strategy?
How feasible would it be for Archer to potentially pivot into cargo or defence, once the company is ramped up? Would the barriers to entry be fairly low here, given the industry’s relative immaturity?
To what extent would delays or potential execution failures from Archer or its peers pose a risk to continued funding as this market becomes more saturated, despite its immaturity?
What is your short- and longer-term outlook for Archer? What key questions should we be asking as the company emerges as a public entity?
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