SoftBank’s Arm is seeking the largest Nasdaq IPO in almost two years, targeting a valuation of $60-70bn despite flat revenue and declining net profit.
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Specialist
Former SVP at SiFive
Agenda
- Adoption trends, technological developments and product roadmap
- Competitive dynamics across Codasip, Imagination Technologies, Andes, Nuclei System Technology, Arm and others
- Strengths and weaknesses of RISC-V AI chip approaches vs traditional AI chip approaches & Arm
- RISC-V vs Arm dynamics
Questions
1.
What would you say are the most significant evolutions of the RISC-V ecosystem across 2022 and the majority of 2023?
2.
In another Forum Interview [see Arm – IPO expectations, USD 60bn Valuation Drivers & AI Chip Market Outlook – 22 August 2023], our specialist described the scenario of Google porting Android to RISC-V as a yellow or amber flag for Arm, obviously given the company’s recently announced IPO, which is anticipated in September 2023. What do these developments mean for Arm’s future, especially given that we’ve seen announcements of high-performance applications adopting RISC-V?
3.
When might the 80-90% market share in processor IP being credibly challenged by RISC-V approach a point where things could start looking less certain for Arm?
4.
Would you therefore expect Arm’s growth over the next seven years to be quite similar to that of the preceding seven years? What might be the impact of RISC-V adoption on Arm’s revenue growth potential until 2030? You said market share could be down to 50% and RISC-V could grow to 40-45%.
5.
What growth rates could we expect for companies that are leading the charge with RISC-V, especially if you’re suggesting 5-10% for Arm?
6.
Where do you think the more European-based players such as Codasip and Imagination Technologies fall within the ecosystem?
7.
Another key part of Arm’s prospectus was the risk of China and Arm China in general. What do you make of the growth of China-based or eastern RISC-V vendors? How is that evolving? Who might start competing with Arm China and western RISC-V players?
8.
Do Alibaba and Nuclei compete with the western RISC-V players such as SiFive, Andes, Codasip and Imagination Technologies? Or is it really quite separated in this era of de-globalisation as some people say? Therefore, is it more of a risk to Arm than it is to anyone else?
9.
When we think about an estimate of RISC-V cores and how many might be shipped by a certain time, some third-party estimates [see RISC-V Sector – Q2 2023 Update & Market Overview – 4 May 2023] suggest about 62.5 billion RISC-V cores could be shipped by the end of 2025. Does that seem accurate to you?
10.
Which companies are best-placed to take advantage of the huge growth in cores being shipped?
11.
In terms of the RISC-V ecosystem and players that might be licensing the IP to Qualcomm or Samsung, do you think Andes and SiFive would still be the market leaders within the huge growth we just hypothesised?
12.
Where does Nvidia fall in the overall scheme of things?
13.
Another of Arm’s important relationships that might have soured recently is with Qualcomm, which you also suggested might be best-placed to take advantage of huge increases in RISC-V cores. To what extent do you think the Arm-Qualcomm lawsuit surrounding RISC-V could have soured customer relations? Might other Arm customers be worried about future lawsuits, meaning they adopt RISC-V quicker than they would have done initially?
14.
Could you elaborate on Arm’s new business model? A specialist in a previous Forum Interview [see STMicroelectronics – 2023 Outlook & Competitive Positioning as Supply-demand Imbalances Ease – 18 April 2023] said that is a driver in perhaps increasing RISC-V adoption. Do you see it as a major driver and think that kind of business model change could be successful? I’m sensing some industry scepticism about it.
15.
What percentage figure would you put on the new business model’s success? A specialist in the previous Forum Interview I mentioned on STMicroelectronics thought it had a 30% chance of being successful.
16.
In a world where Google is porting out Android to RISC-V, does it make the change in business model more difficult for Arm because there’s another option, meaning there’s a risk of it accelerating a trend that is already happening?
17.
What are RISC-V customers highlighting as the main challenges with RISC-V adoption? Why isn’t it happening quicker? What are customers saying about it?
18.
Is there anything we haven’t discussed that you think is really important when it comes to thinking about RISC-V vs Arm, or just RISC-V standalone?
