Specialist
Former adviser at Yoox Net-a Porter Group SpA
Agenda
- Mytheresa’s (NYSE: MYTE) sales growth outlook, discussing regional and category dynamics, plus frequency and AOV trends
- Operating model shifts, including GMV share growth opportunities
- Competitive dynamics vs players such as Farfetch (NYSE: FTCH) and others
- EBITDA sustainability – gross margin expectations, marketing costs and shipping and payment costs
Questions
1.
What is your GMV growth outlook for Mytheresa in Q4 FY22, which runs from April to June 2022? Could you outline key drivers and the differences across markets, given there are some substantial demand variances?
2.
You mentioned potential for a positive surprise in China, which is interesting given the current coronavirus restrictions in place there. What could lead to a potentially positive outcome in China?
3.
How are the supply chain challenges in China hampering online sales in the region? How does that inform your outlook for Q4 FY22? I’ve heard it’s quite difficult to source inventory in China due to the coronavirus restrictions.
4.
You mentioned mid-teens GMV growth, and Mytheresa has publicly stated it’s hoping to achieve low-20s GMV for the full year, meaning it would need to come in around 25% in Q4 FY22. Why do you think we’re seeing this discrepancy between mid-teens and the mid-20s range the company needs to reach its GMV growth rate?
5.
What are the other top three limiting factors for GMV, aside from the potential risk around promotional activity?
6.
You referenced potential growth deceleration globally. How are you expecting Mytheresa to perform, given the rising cost of living and the threat of a recession?
7.
What is a realistic GMV growth rate for Mytheresa in FY23, so July 2022 to July 2023? Could you provide a breakdown across regions?
8.
What is the best- and worst-case scenario around the expected mid-teens GMV growth rate in FY23?
9.
How successful do you expect the JD.com collaboration to be for Mytheresa in China?
10.
Which brands are missing from the assortment on JD.com today?
11.
What are you expecting in terms of active customer growth vs growth within existing customers in the short-to-medium term?
12.
We’re hearing about a launch of the lifestyle category. How successful could the expansion into this category be for Mytheresa?
13.
Mytheresa’s AOV was around EUR 617 in the last 12 months. How are you expecting this to trend over the next 12-24 months?
14.
What promotional activity are we seeing from Farfetch or any other players? You said Farfetch is a key threat.
15.
What uptake are you expecting across the curated platform model Mytheresa has launched? I think it has signed up six brands.
16.
What are the operational challenges for Mytheresa in terms of moving from the marketplace model accounting for 10-15% of GMV to 40-50%?
17.
What are your take rate expectations around the 40-50% GMV contribution?
18.
Why do you think brands would be more willing to pay a higher concession fee to Mytheresa vs a player such as Farfetch?
19.
How do you expect the curated platform model to impact gross margins in FY22, which ends in the next couple of months, and FY23?
20.
What’s your outlook for the underlying gross margin of Mytheresa’s wholesale business, so excluding the curated platform model?
21.
What’s your marketing expenses outlook? Mytheresa talks about these potentially decreasing due to the strong retention dynamics.
22.
What marketing efficiencies does the curated platform model create for Mytheresa?
23.
What’s your fulfilment cost outlook? I believe it’s trending around 13%, so 1pp higher than marketing costs. We are hearing about logistics and courier inflation.
24.
What’s your 1-2-year outlook for EBITDA margins?
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