Specialist
Former VP at Lam Research Corp
Agenda
- Capital equipment investment outlook for 2022 and beyond
- Lam Research's (NASDAQ: LRCX) position in etch, deposition and other key areas
- Market share outlook in key end markets
- Revenue growth outlook and implications of 3D transistor architecture adoption for logic and memory market share
Questions
1.
How has the market environment changed since our previous Interview [see Semiconductor Capital Equipment Market Update – Key Technology Trends & Supply Chain Dynamics – 10 August 2021]? How do you expect wafer fab equipment spend to trend over 2022?
2.
How are you considering the cyclicality of wafer fab equipment spend since our previous Interview? Do you expect a pullback? What pullback might there be in digesting orders and the spend that’s already happened by the manufacturers? Do you expect a moderation or softening?
3.
I believe you mentioned the wafer fab equipment spend will be USD 90bn for 2022. What might be a bullish vs bearish case for spend by 2023-25? What determining factors would drive the market one way or another? What do you think may create some risk in the sense of not aligning with your expectations?
4.
One thing that caught my attention was the potential CAPEX cost risk over the next 12 months, particularly in NAND. What is the risk of those costs playing out over the next 12 months and what is your outlook for equipment spend, specifically in the memory segment?
5.
What are your capital intensity expectations for various customer bases, perhaps separated between logic and memory or even between logic and DRAM? What are the net impacts of the progress being made in 3D resistor architectures and advancements on resistor architectures on capital intensity? Where could it go in 2-3 years?
6.
What are Lam’s key end markets and how is market or tool spend impacted by the rise in capital intensity? There is etch and deposition, obviously, as well as photoresist strip systems or plasma-based cleaning.
7.
Could you outline Lam’s competitive positioning? The company has positioned its strength in etch, but also in certain deposition market segments and other areas. To what extent could share gains in various markets be a key threat or a component of its story?
8.
To what extent do you expect initiatives such as Sense.i to drive up Lam’s market share position in logic and foundry? What do you think the company can achieve over the next 3-5 years in market share growth or traction with products that will enable it to participate a little more in logic and foundry?
9.
Are there specific customers where you think Lam is particularly well-positioned to do really well, increase its share position or where its solutions have particular resonance? I understand there are not too many leading-edge manufacturers.
10.
What’s your five-year outlook for Lam’s revenue contribution from DRAM vs NAND vs logic vs foundry? Do you expect a meaningful shift? What could that shift be like? How early might those efforts pay off if they do?
11.
How might Lam’s split between systems and services revenue develop? How do you expect the services business to grow relative to the systems business? Does the revenue generated by the services business outstrip systems or maybe just accelerate more broadly? How should I think about the recurring services revenue that springs off the chamber right and how that impacts dollar per chamber and the company’s revenue model?
12.
What’s your outlook for Lam? Is there anything we didn’t discuss around the company and its performance that you think is worth mentioning, such as cost structure, investments or competitive positioning? Do you have any longer-term thoughts?
