Specialist
Senior Automotive Engineer at Future Electronics Inc
Agenda
- Semiconductor shortage analysis by category – MCUs (microcontroller units), CAN (controller area network) transceivers, passives and others
- Lead times for major IC (integrated circuit) suppliers and inventories for customers and distributors, including competitive positioning
- Analysis of future pricing dynamics, supply-demand outlook and double ordering 4. Supply chain update and production implications, focusing on auto markets and EV (electric vehicle) implications
Questions
1.
Could you summarise the developments in the automotive market’s supply-demand crisis since our Q2 2021 Interview? [see Automotive Semiconductor Shortage – Distributor Assessment – 18 June 2021]
2.
Can you evaluate lead times across SKUs? Which are the shortest and where have they improved? Could you discuss QoQ trends you’ve noted?
3.
In the areas where you’d note lead times improving, such as power modules and MOSFETs [metal-oxide semiconductor field-effect transistors], is that a sustainable and protracted trend that you’d expect to continue? Or is it temporary?
4.
What is the state of inventories for the components we’ve discussed, at automotive OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] and in the channel? Do you think manufacturers are holding onto anything?
5.
Could you estimate the proportion of orders that are double-orders or panic buys? We talked about panic buying in our last Interview and you also referenced another strategy to pick up additional capacity, buying lines. Could you expand on what’s being done to get supply now the orders are coming in?
6.
What is the state of manufacturing capacity for automotive chips? How constrained is it and what are the pricing ramifications, given that TSMC announced significant pricing changes? How would you assess pricing for the semiconductor design firms trying to get additional capacity and how does this impact pricing downstream?
7.
Do you expect another 10-15% price increase QoQ for the next few quarters? At what point could price increases run out of steam? What are your pricing activity expectations for the semiconductor players?
8.
Which chips suppliers, such as Microchip Technology, NXP, Renesas, Texas Instruments and STMicroelectronics, are best-positioned around supply? You mentioned Infineon opened up a new fab, which presumably puts it in a better position.
9.
How permanent or structural do you think market share shifts are, such as Japanese players gaining share? Do these shifts have a multi-year impact given how designs are done in automotive, or would they play out over 12 months before shifting back?
10.
What other strategies are in play to ensure production capacities for the next year? We discussed chip manufacturers buying lines at foundries.
11.
What strategies are the automotive OEMs and tier 1 suppliers using to get supply? Are there any structural changes in their strategies to obtain semiconductors or chips, causing them to change supply chain or build different relationships?
12.
How are the automotive OEMs positioned on production capacity? Who would you say has managed the crisis better or worse and why? Who would you expect to do better over the next few months?
13.
Would you say EV [electric vehicle] adoption trends are hindered by auto manufacturers’ abilities to get the necessary components? EVs have substantially more semiconductor content than traditional ICE [internal combustion engine] vehicles. Could there be a longer-term impact to supplier demand past a general recovery for autos?
14.
Could you assess supply chain integrity for the automotive semiconductor market? What’s been the impact from coronavirus disruptions, such as in Malaysia or the Philippines? What are the most recent developments you’d note in supply chain integrity across labour, materials and freight?
15.
Could you quantify freight costs and transportation times, particularly between Taiwan or Hong Kong and LA, or between the US and Taiwan or China? How far extended do you expect shipping times and those processes to be?
16.
When do you think vehicle production will resume its typical run rate longer term? Could you update us on inventory strategy? Should we expect production to resume at pre-coronavirus or elevated levels before players start building inventory or not?
17.
Yesterday, IDC discussed 2023-24 and outlined a potential glut in supply for semiconductors. Do you think that’s realistic? What’s your take on market dynamics post-2022, given you discussed the strength of demand?
18.
Do you have any final comments or thoughts? Would you expect the production lines at major automotive OEMs to be back in full production by the end of 2022?
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