CEO at Pilot Flight Academy
- Airline recovery potential over 2022 and pilot availability
- Key issues for pilots, including training school dynamics and potential requirement reforms
- Implications of a labour shortage across regional vs major airlines
What impact has coronavirus had on airline pilots?
What are your travel recovery expectations? You said the EU might bounce back in summer 2022, but when could airlines return to 2019 levels of revenue?
How would you describe the labour market for pilots at US airlines? Pilot shortages have been alluded to for years. Is there finally a true pilot shortage?
You mentioned the industry is 12,000 pilots short. Could you describe the applicant pool? Where are most pilots coming from that would fill this gap? Is it military, flight schools or other airlines?
What is driving the military pilot shortage?
What is the typical path to become a pilot, including the requirements?
How is a player such as CAE on the training side positioned to benefit from the pilot shortage, given the acquisitions it has made over the last 18 months?
How has enrolment trended at flight schools? Has there been any notable enrolment increase or decrease over the last two years?
How long does it take to become a pilot and what is the graduation rate? Have there been any declines in graduation rates? You’ve mentioned 13 months and the hour requirements.
Nearly every US airline has come to market saying they want to hire more pilots – American Airlines aims to hire over 1,000 pilots in 2022 and most majors have similar plans. What is a winning strategy for airlines to hire pilots? Is it more money or schedule flexibility? What are pilots demanding?
You mentioned the bonus payments and there has been triple pay offered through January at some airlines, one-time USD 1,000 bonuses and other incentives to get pilots back in the air in recent months. What wage inflation do you expect in 2022 due to this?
How should we compare the cost of incentives and wage inflation vs cancellations and reduced capacity?
10,000 flights were cancelled over the 2021 Christmas weekend and 20,000 flights since then. Given the lack of available pilots, how do you expect capacity at major airlines to be affected in 2022? Could they run reduced capacity or do you think they’ll chase the revenue even with the pilot shortage?
Would you expect more cancellations during summer peaks similar to what we noted during the holiday peaks, or is the worst behind us?
It seems regionals will be more affected than majors by the pilot shortage. Why might that be? How are majors vs regionals positioned to deal with the labour shortage more generally?
Would a company such as Spirit, which flies predominantly one aircraft type, have any advantage around recruiting pilots? Do pilots value this?
Do you think the labour pool is large enough to fulfil the pilot hiring levels airlines hope to achieve?
You’ve mentioned potential changes to the 1,500 hours or raising the retirement age above 65 years. Are there any other ways that the US might mitigate pilot issues?
Could you summarise the path to recovery? How can airlines get pilots back and return to 2019 capacity and profitability levels?
What would you ask a major airline CEO about the pilot situation? What would you want to hear from a CEO that would reassure you about a pilot shortage?
What are your key takeaways around the airline industry and pilots to monitor throughout 2022?
Gain access to Premium Content
Submit your details to access up to 5 Forum Transcripts or to request a complimentary one week trial.
The information, material and content contained in this transcript (“Content”) is for information purposes only and does not constitute advice of any type or a trade recommendation and should not form the basis of any investment decision.This transcript has been edited by Third Bridge for ease of reading. Third Bridge Group Limited and its affiliates (together “Third Bridge”) make no representation and accept no liability for the Contentor for any errors, omissions or inaccuracies in respect of it. The views of the specialist expressed in the Content are those of the specialist and they are not endorsed by, nor do they represent the opinion of, Third Bridge. Third Bridge reserves all copyright, intellectual and other property rights in the Content. Any modification, reformatting, copying, displaying, distributing, transmitting, publishing, licensing, creating derivative works from, transferring or selling any Content is strictly prohibited