Former adviser at Nord Stream AG
- Scenarios for energy supply from Russia, including sanctions impacts, energy embargo potential and supply shock effects
- Policy and European governments’ near-term approaches to energy security
- Nord Stream 2 cancellation and potential impact on Russian gas’s future in Europe
- Gazprom’s (MOEX: GAZP) positioning – long-term customer reactions to supply risk, European storage management and future commercial opportunities
Where do natural gas markets stand in terms of supply and pricing, and what are some trends and dynamics? There have been many changes and developments.
There’s been record high pricing, which seems to have softened slightly in natural gas markets. How have flows from Russia progressed during the situation with Ukraine? What’s the risk of supply disruption, either through conflict and Ukraine pipeline sourcing disruption or through supply sanctions or cut-offs?
How are customers with long-term Gazprom contracts thinking about the supply risk and the implications of flows stopping or being cut off from Gazprom?
The European Commission wants to reduce Russian gas dependence by around two-thirds in one year. How feasible is this initiative in such a short time frame considering Gazprom and its long-term contracts?
What are your thoughts on Germany’s decision to suspend the Nord Stream 2, probably the most direct action against Russian energy in terms of gas. What does that say about Russian gas’s future in Europe and how might it change the dynamics there?
How do you assess Europe’s ability to attract additional LNG [liquefied natural gas] cargoes, given some of the market tightness over the past year? You mentioned pipeline gas and LNG competing, and increasing LNG by around 50bcm is key to the European Commission’s plan to reduce Russian gas dependence.
You mentioned some tension between near-term decarbonisation and the shift towards coal or considering gas as part of the energy transition. How might that dynamic develop and how could European countries look to balance near-term needs with longer-term energy transition goals and targets?
How are European governments reacting to the potential supply disruption risk, or even just the linkage between high natural gas prices and high electricity prices? Could you outline the policy instruments or regulations they’re considering to mitigate some of the crisis’s effects?
You mentioned some demand destruction amid price spikes. What’s the potential for additional demand destruction and how might that play out as we enter the warmer weather season?
What’s the likelihood of an EU-wide gas cap on wholesale gas prices, which has been increasingly called for? What impact would such a policy implementation have across some of the value chain?
The European Commission has also highlighted storage capacity as a focus, and aims to have 90% of capacity full by October 2022. How feasible is that and how is the Commission approaching storage-filling and policy?
How has Gazprom typically approached storage management in Europe and how might regulation change that? Gazprom-owned storage facilities in Europe were less full than other sites throughout 2021.
How effective could the 90% full storage policy be at moderating some of the market’s volatility or disruption anxieties?
How might Gazprom assess its longer-term commercial opportunities given the Russia-Europe energy divorce? To what extent can volumes be moved to China or Asian markets and how might the company approach that?
How do you assess the longer- or medium-term implications of the Russia-Ukraine situation on European energy markets and the pace or scale of energy transition investments?
Are there any points we haven’t touched on that you’d like to highlight?
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