Specialist
Former divisional leader at Airbnb Inc.
Agenda
- Post-pandemic expectations for Airbnb’s (NASDAQ: ABNB) key metrics – GBV (gross booking value), ADRs (average daily rates) and length of stay
- Impact of increasing professionalisation of the platform
- Organic vs inorganic inventory and booking acquisition, highlighting performance vs brand marketing trends
- Loyalty and retention strategies
Questions
1.
What are your expectations for post-pandemic regional GBV [gross booking value] growth trends? Airbnb reported a GBV of almost USD 12bn in Q3 2021 and there has been significant variation over the last 24 months.
2.
ADRs increased over the pandemic. People were shifting away from urban, going more rural and wanting accommodation-types such as whole homes. Q3 2021 ADRs were about USD 150. How might that change post-pandemic?
3.
There were higher ADRs in Q1 and Q2 2021 at around USD 160-plus. Was that because business would have been far more North American-focused during those months? Do you think USD 150 is a realistic expectation for ADRs as the situation unwinds and bookings spread across more regions? Alternatively, could ADRs return to pre-pandemic levels of around USD 110?
4.
What are your thoughts on length of stay and the sustainability of Airbnb’s gains there? People were more prone to travelling and working elsewhere during the pandemic. That pushed average nights per booking to 4-4.4 in the US, 2.8 in APAC and 4.1 on average across the board in 2020. What are your expectations for that metric?
5.
How do you think about the growth of Lux or Airbnb Plus within Airbnb’s title mix?
6.
How do you think about the economics of Airbnb Plus, given that you mentioned Lux is a very small part of the business? The ADRs are higher for Plus. Are people booking longer stays as well?
7.
Could you estimate the contribution that Plus makes to Airbnb’s broader GBV?
8.
Could you estimate the number of listings on the platforms? I’ve read many different estimates, including 5.5 million and higher.
9.
How many days on average is a typical Airbnb listing available for per year? It would depend on the host and the property.
10.
Could you estimate the split on Airbnb between individual hosts and the more professionally managed portfolio companies? I’ve read some as high as 50% for each.
11.
Does the professionalisation of the platform have an impact on Airbnb? Does it improve customer experience in aggregate?
12.
Do you think a higher share of professional hosts impacts the commission that Airbnb can charge? If a company had 1,000 properties, could it negotiate a lower commission than it would pay if it just had one property?
13.
Might professional hosts have a slightly different distribution mix across platforms, perhaps more so than an individual host? How do you think that impacts Airbnb’s share of the available room nights for a listing?
14.
What’s your estimate for Airbnb’s share of bookings for a typical listing vs platforms such as Vrbo and Booking? Would you just use their broader market share as a proxy for share of bookings or would you expect Airbnb to over-index relative to its market share?
15.
In its S1 in November 2020, Airbnb mentioned that 79% of hosts came to the platform organically in 2019. How might that evolve given the competition for inventory, particularly high-quality inventory between Airbnb, Booking and Vrbo?
16.
What’s the process of acquiring new listings? Is it salespeople who get paid by commission per listing they bring on?
17.
How would you consider the cost of acquiring inventory inorganically?
18.
In Airbnb’s most recent management call, it still discussed 90% of traffic being acquired organically. Is it reasonable to expect a similar level of conversion between organic and inorganic traffic?
19.
In Q1-Q2 2021 Airbnb spent between USD 230m and USD 350m per quarter on sales and marketing. How much of that could be driven by performance vs brand marketing if those two areas are driving most of that line item?
20.
People discuss how little Airbnb has to rely on performance marketing vs Booking and Expedia. Do you think that mix will hold as the company grows or will it become more reliant on performance marketing channels to continue to drive growth especially outside of North America, where perhaps the brand equity is weaker?
21.
What are the challenges for Airbnb to growing a loyal consumer base in new markets? It has a very established core loyal user base in western Europe and North America.
22.
Do you think cost per booking will continue to rise as Airbnb enters new markets and leverages performance marketing more in established markets?
23.
Do you think Airbnb will ever have to introduce a loyalty programme like what Expedia does in hotels?
24.
Could you estimate the bookings frequency of a typical Airbnb user? How would you calculate customers’ lifetime value?
