Specialist
Former AVP at AT&T Inc
Agenda
- Operating environments for Verizon (NYSE: VZ), T-Mobile (NASDAQ: TMUS), AT&T (NYSE: T) and Dish (NASDAQ: DISH) – 5G CAPEX expectations for the next 12-36 months
- Key differentiating factors in the mature nationwide 5G network
- Possible killer use cases – edge computing, IoT, private networks, next-generation cloud gaming and healthcare initiatives – telcos' ability to gain better share of incremental 5G revenues relative to 4G
- Coopetition with hyperscalers such as Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Facebook (NASDAQ: FB)
- Outlook for H2 2021 and beyond – potential wildcards and industry winners and losers
Questions
1.
What trends or drivers will be most impactful for 5G, given the overall fluid dynamics playing out?
2.
Where are we positioned in the overall 5G CAPEX cycle? How should we compare the dollar magnitude or time required to reach a fully fledged 5G network vs 4G, appreciating it’s somewhat apples-to-oranges?
3.
AT&T recently announced it is prioritising fibre investments above all else, increasing its CAPEX spend into 2021. Does prioritising fibre over wireless sites connote anything about the eventual approach to commercialising? Is there reason to believe AT&T isn’t buying into some of the later-stage enterprise killer apps that are expected to come in, relative to Verizon or T-Mobile?
4.
What regulatory factors will inform whether the infrastructure plan is a net positive vs a net negative for AT&T? Is it likely the company can capture a decent portion of the eventual distributions, and that a lot of the money that’s provided will be for greenfield opportunities? There are questions around the extent to which the state-owned networks will be prioritised, and the actual definition of an underserved area. Should it be defined as no internet, or does 25Mbps down and 3Mbps up still not match the speed requirements?
5.
How do you expect competitive dynamics to evolve among AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon? What will be the most unique features across the three players when the 5G networks have eventually been constructed?
6.
How should we frame the broader competitor set for AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile? Will Dish or the cable players pose formidable competition on the consumer or enterprise side over time?
7.
Could you break down the potential killer app use cases being worked through for 5G, starting with APIs? Where are we positioned in commercialising those, as we consider the partnerships that carriers can strike up? How should we size that total opportunity over time?
8.
Could you outline the coopetition with the cloud service providers? It seems it was many of the cloud scalers who got the most incremental returns out of 3G and 4G. Do you expect changes with 5G that would allow AT&T, Verizon or T-Mobile to strike more attractive revenue share arrangements with these players? What’s in it for Microsoft or others to bring them along more meaningfully than in past network transitions?
9.
Do you anticipate a billion-dollar incremental revenue opportunity, or will many of the larger sales lifts come from fixed wireless access and other areas that might come through for 5G? I appreciate it’s hard to gauge given many of the use cases through which carriers can leverage partnerships with cloud service providers are still in real-time.
10.
How will the advent of software-defined networks flow through and impact other stakeholders, particularly tower companies and colos? Will they be impacted positively or negatively as networks need to be connected to the cloud pieces, relative to how business was done with carriers historically?
11.
How should we consider whether carriers or the towercos have more leverage at points of amendment?
12.
What is your outlook for the scale of 5G fixed wireless access, considering the speed but also the per-month bandwidth capacity that a typical broadband home uses?
13.
Do you think AT&T, Verizon or T-Mobile is currently best-positioned in home broadband?
14.
Do you think the propagation issues for wireless-based internet will be an issue for the higher-ARPU consumer use cases such as gamers, telehealth or VR? Might cable resonate better in these scenarios?
15.
What key risks and uncertainties should we monitor around the 5G transition over the next few years?
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