Interview Synopsis

US oil – 2021 supply outlook

  • Multi Asset
  • Energy
  • North America

The coronavirus pandemic has had a profound effect on global oil, with April’s negative prices arguably the industry’s biggest headline of the year. Third Bridge Forum interviewed a former advisor at Diamondback Energy Inc to gauge what the future holds for US oil, at the basin level and on aggregate. 

2021 set to be a slippery slope for oil

The discussion started with a high-level overview of what 2021 has in store for the industry, with the specialist then ranking the various oil basins in terms of their ability to recover. “The US peaked roughly at about 13 million barrels of oil in November 2019, reached a low of about 9.7 million in August and rebounded slightly to 10.9 million in September,” he noted. 

The steep drop in demand has resulted in 60,000 layoffs in Texas alone, the Interview revealed, with figures also showing how production has decreased YoY. 

The expert shared his views on the specific issues affecting US basins including Eagle Ford, Bakken, Permian, West Texas and Anadarko. Also on the agenda was how restructuring across oilfield services might shape the industry’s future landscape. Vendors have been hit harder than producers and were “basically pushed to the edge of extinction by COVID-19”.

Meanwhile, consolidation does not seem to have drastically impacted the industry, according to the Interview. “Ideally, we’d move to more of an oligopoly-type situation, where a few buyers control the market.”

Other topics covered included the potential impact of the US presidential election, the break-even oil price for the US and which of the big operators should be viewed as important drivers of the US oil outlook.

To access all the human insights in Third Bridge Forum’s US Oil – 2021 supply outlook Interview, click here to view the full transcript. 

The information used in compiling this document has been obtained by Third Bridge from experts participating in Forum Interviews. Third Bridge does not warrant the accuracy of the information and has not independently verified it. It should not be regarded as a trade recommendation or form the basis of any investment decision.

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