Specialist
Former team lead at Zalando SE
Agenda
- 2022-25 GMV outlook for Zalando (ETR: ZAL), discussing regional trends, purchase frequency and AOVs
- Partner programme slowdown expectations amid GMV concerns
- Can Zalando maintain growth in ZMS (Zalando Marketing Services) and ZFS (Zalando Fulfillment Solutions) in the current context?
- Profitability headwinds, including inflation challenges and offsetting opportunities
Questions
1.
What is your 2022 outlook for Zalando’s GMV, outlining your top 3-5 drivers underpinning those assumptions?
2.
How much evidence is there of trading down within Zalando’s core customer base?
3.
You mentioned an increased return rate. How much higher is it YoY or vs pre-pandemic?
4.
What’s driving Zalando’s higher returns rate? Is it the lack of disposable income?
5.
You said there’s no evidence yet of trading down, but what are you noticing around frequency trends, so frequency of purchase?
6.
How does the returns dynamic impact profitability?
7.
What evidence is there that AOVs are tightening or declining?
8.
What AOV decrease are you expecting in the next few months? What decline is realistic?
9.
What can Zalando do to limit customers returning items?
10.
How aggressive are Zalando’s discounts currently?
11.
Could Zalando discount more heavily than partner programme brands to offload inventory?
12.
How much excess inventory is there? When the spring-summer collection was bought, the outlook was very different and the online market was booming. How much of an inventory issue is there?
13.
What typical agreements does Zalando have in place around factors such as cancellation policies or inventory sharing?
14.
What proportion of Zalando’s inventory do you think has the sort of agreement you outlined? How large is the inventory risk for the company?
15.
What do you think is the buying behaviour for the 2023 spring-summer collection? Has that already begun, and if so, how cautious do you think brands such as Zalando are being?
16.
What is your GMV outlook beyond 2022? Zalando’s management said GMV could reach anywhere between EUR 14.8bn and EUR 15.3bn in 2022, and you said you would be surprised if it reached EUR 15bn.
17.
How do you expect the macro climate to impact partner programme acceleration?
18.
What are the top three reasons why Zalando’s partner programme is likely to be paused?
19.
I think Zalando is targeting 15% from partners by 2025, so 50% GMV contribution. What do you think is a realistic target for the partner programme given the current challenges?
20.
To what extent does the connected retail offering cannibalise the partner programme?
21.
Why would a brand choose the partner programme rather than connected retail, or vice versa?
22.
How are you expecting the take rate for partner programmes to evolve in the current macro context? Could we see Zalando reducing its take rate to increase partner programme growth?
23.
How is the current climate likely to impact ZMS [Zalando Marketing Services] spend?
24.
How do brands view ZMS’s ROI vs other media spend?
25.
I think Zalando’s targets for ZMS are 3-4% of GMV by 2025. How realistic is that based on the potential drawback in spend from customers?
26.
How are you expecting ZFS [Zalando Fulfillment Solutions] usage to trend given the macro climate?
27.
How are you expecting the inventory challenges to impact gross margins alongside the expected decline in AOVs?
28.
Zalando has spoken about reducing costs to offset the current challenges. What cost items could be immediately addressed and what is the scope of the savings opportunity in the short term?
29.
What do you see as Zalando’s key cost reduction challenges in H2 2022?
30.
What is a sustainable marketing spend relative to GMV? What is the bare minimum Zalando could spend?
31.
I know Zalando is introducing a minimum order value for some markets. How do you expect that to impact profitability?
32.
Zalando’s EBIT outlook for full-year 2022 is EUR 180m-260m. Where do you think it might land in 2022?
