Specialist
Senior Executive at Turner, Mason & Co
Agenda
- Storm damage of US Gulf Coast refining facilities and infrastructure
- Market impacts on crude oil, gasoline and distillate balances
- Post-coronavirus demand recovery outlook
- Regulatory issues and potential outcomes
Questions
1.
What’s your assessment of the impact of Hurricane Laura on the refining system along the Gulf Coast?
2.
Have the refineries made additional investments in recent years to withstand these kinds of storms? You mentioned they’re built to withstand wind.
3.
Could you discuss the response of gasoline and diesel prices to the storm?
4.
US exports have been a big phenomenon in this decade of crude oil and refined products. How would you say export facilities are impacted by storms? What are the trends there?
5.
How have refiners in the US been impacted by the coronavirus crisis operationally, if at all?
6.
You mentioned that seven refineries have closed or announced closure. Could you outline how much of the total system that represents, by number of refineries or capacity?
7.
What happened with the Santa Maria facility losing its pipeline supply? Do you think that could happen to other refineries? Was this a one-off?
8.
Demand has started to recover, having significantly decreased earlier in 2020. Refinery utilisation was only running in the low 80s prior to the storm. Did you expect a full recovery or something close to that prior to the storm? What’s your outlook now for refinery utilisation?
9.
How important would you say jet fuel is vs gasoline and diesel for a refinery?
10.
You predicted that utilisation will recover by 2022, segmenting this out by product type. Refiners would normally be going into seasonal maintenance at this point in the year. How do you balance the seasonal demand and utilisation impacts against the cyclical recovery as we emerge from coronavirus? What’s your outlook for the maintenance season?
11.
What areas or types of facilities do you think are most at risk of closures, beyond the seven facilities you mentioned earlier?
12.
We’ve discussed the drop in demand across products in 2020 due to the pandemic, and one of the responses has been a decline in US oil production. What’s your outlook for activity in US crude supply? How might that impact refineries?
13.
What are your predictions for global crude oil demand in 2020-21?
14.
How have the US refiners handled the gyrations from OPEC [Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries], or the sharp decreases in output this year? Have they had an impact, or do you think demand and US supply dynamics are more important?
15.
You’ve touched on coastal and inland, but are there regions that you think will be better- or worse- positioned in the future?
16.
Would you say the decline in heavy crude supply from Mexico and Venezuela has had a big impact on crude differentials?
17.
What might it take for the Canadian crudes to fill the gap left by Venezuela?
18.
We would have discussed IMO 2020 by now if we had done this Interview in 2019. Do you think the pandemic has eliminated this issue? Will it come back? What’s your take on IMO 2020 from here?
19.
You gave us your longer-term outlook on crude oil production in the US. When might the impact of EVs [electric vehicles] take hold on US demand for refined products?
20.
What would you say are the biggest regulatory issues US refiners are facing today? How could the presidential election in November impact regulation?
21.
Could you elaborate on California’s low-carbon fuel standards? Why are they attracting renewable diesel conversions from crude oil refineries?
22.
How would you size California’s renewable diesel market? You mentioned the risk around adding too much capacity earlier – could you bracket that risk for us?
23.
What are your thoughts on the Trump administration’s use of the strategic petroleum reserve? Was adding crude to the market earlier this year able to balance it? Do you think this is a real intervention tool?
24.
What’s your take on events with the Dakota Access Pipeline? How could that situation resolve? What could be the production impact in the Bakken, and what might this mean for refiners?
25.
Are there any other significant regulatory issues that you think we need to monitor around US refining?
26.
What do you think are the key issues or events our clients need to monitor around US refining for H2 2020-21, besides the election?
27.
Do you predict gasoline, diesel and heating oil prices increasing, decreasing or staying the same?
28.
What’s your outlook on the US refiners? Do you think conditions will get better, worse or remain constant?
29.
Is there anything we’re yet to highlight around US refining?
