Specialist
Former VP at Tellurian Inc
Agenda
- Outlook for US LNG (liquefied natural gas) producers and pricing scenarios
- Potential short- and long-term role of US LNG producers in replacing Russian gas exports to Europe
- LNG project development opportunities in North America and industry constraints – shipping and contracting dynamics
- Outlook for Tellurian’s (NASDAQ: TELL) Driftwood LNG project
- Role of energy policymakers and threats to US LNG industry, including a potential export ban
Questions
1.
You were in Houston at CERAWeek this week – how was it? What was the tone and how did people feel about commodity prices and recent world events?
2.
How are buyers of gas behaving in the short term? Is everything that’s spot on the market heading to Europe? Where else is demand heading?
3.
The US is exporting all it can in this high-price market but how long can the US run at capacity? Does there need to be maintenance? Obviously, we’re trying to fill a short-term demand need, but what are the risks of potential export disruptions in the US?
4.
Are there potentially any other supply risks on the horizon, particularly given the prices? Are there any risks that we could continue to fall short globally?
5.
Can you elaborate on the US banning the Russian volume? Is it because of secondary sanctions that would prevent, potentially, Europe from buying them? When does the market figure out whether Europe can import the Russian volumes?
6.
What are the considerations around the Arctic and the Baltic LNG projects? If US companies had equipment contracted to sell to those projects, would that end or could it still be delivered because there was an existing contract?
7.
Is shipping a potential bottleneck? You gave some of the numbers around how much is traded, but are there enough ships to move LNG to meet the demand?
8.
How is contracting changing in terms of pricing structure or contract tenure? How has the crisis changed the dynamic on what buyers and sellers in the LNG market would be willing to agree to?
9.
Who would be providing finance for the contracts in the countries you outlined?
10.
What’s your outlook for the supply side in the US, particularly the Venture Global project, Calcasieu Pass, which started up recently? How would you expect such a project to ramp over time? Are we talking weeks, months or quarters before it runs at capacity? Are there any teething issues? How do we know when it becomes a reliable source of supply?
11.
What are your broad expectations for Tellurian’s Driftwood LNG project? Facility construction is supposed to start April 2022.
12.
What has been the biggest challenge in getting the Driftwood project off the ground and how is that being solved? We’re a few years into this and it was close on some deals a couple of years ago.
13.
What happens if Tellurian moves ahead or gets the financing in place? Would it open up for the rest of the market, such as these other 14 projects that have FERC [Federal Energy Regulatory Commission] approval, or are they all case-by-case?
14.
What particular group of buyers would you expect for the incremental projects and the US supply? Would it be the new 10 or 11 countries? Are the more established buyers likely to show up on these future projects? How might it play out?
15.
You described Australia as expensive when you listed the other potential supply source. What do you think about the possible inflationary pressures in the US? Is this a risk and where would the inflation come from?
16.
What’s your take on regasification capacity? Where could more capacity be built in Europe and how much could be added? How long before it happens?
17.
Can we easily build FSRUs [floating storage and regasification units] again? You mentioned how some of the teams in building liquefactions aren’t there from the last round of building. Has the market shifted towards more regas?
18.
What can the Biden administration do to promote US LNG? Exports began under President Obama but is the Biden administration’s attitude differentiated?
19.
Which other global areas should we consider for potential LNG capacity? We alluded to Qatar and Australia and other parts of the LNG export supply chain getting revived due to Europe’s gas crisis.
20.
What industry factors are you paying attention to given there’s plenty of news, price volatility and decisions needing to be made with long-running consequences?
21.
To clarify, you said China and Taiwan could have a greater impact than Russia-Ukraine. Is that on global geopolitics and the LNG market? What exactly would that have a greater impact on?
22.
What key events should we pay attention to for the coming months and quarters, especially after you just wrapped CERAWeek?
