Specialist
Former Director, Engineering at Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX)
Agenda
- Key industry dynamics including competitive landscape
- Rocket launch capabilities – satellite and NASA programmes
- Growth opportunities surrounding launch site development and reusability
- Short-to-long-term outlook
Questions
1.
How would you characterise the satellite launch vehicle industry? What key secular dynamics should we monitor?
2.
How low is the dollar-to-kilogram ratio and what is the lowest that it could get to? What are the key barriers?
3.
Do you think the reusable second stage is even possible? You suggested it is, but how far away could that be? What timeline do you anticipate? What are the main engineering and cost challenges to having that reusable second stage?
4.
How do you interpret the increasing focus on materials sciences for launch vehicles? Most vehicles feature composite materials and carbon composites, but how do you assess the technological advancements there? How do materials requirements change across LEO [low Earth orbit], MEO [medium Earth orbit] and GEO [geostationary Earth orbit] when considering how these materials degrade, especially in reusable rockets?
5.
How has the industry evolved over the past few years? What are your expectations and how do they fit into SpaceX’s market positioning? What are its core strengths and weaknesses?
6.
How do you expect the competitive landscape to evolve? You noted that SpaceX does not have any direct competitors but how might that change with launches expected in 2021, such as Relativity’s? How much of a differentiator is SpaceX’s ride-share capabilities vs smaller-launch providers?
7.
Where do you think SpaceX has opportunities to optimise its core capabilities, given you suggested its failure to do so was a weakness? You mentioned revenue optimisation – how might that play into its ability to optimise margins?
8.
How do you assess SpaceX’s relationship with NASA? How should we interpret the split between commercial and more government-funded or contracted work? How does that aid the company’s ability to focus on many things at once as a non-traditional aerospace company?
9.
How does SpaceX’s relationship with NASA play into the HLS [Human Landing System] contract? Considering what SpaceX would materially lose if it fell through, and given the recent news around the NASA authorisation act, do you expect most contracts with NASA to be double- or dual-sourced moving forward?
10.
What does your optimistic outlook for Starlink mean for SpaceX and its launch capabilities vs some of its customers, especially on satellite launch vehicles?
11.
Do you anticipate any risks in SpaceX creating its own positive feedback loop and demand cycle as Starlink evolves and the company increasingly relies on its own launch vehicle capabilities?
12.
We mentioned some of SpaceX’s core platforms relating to its launch vehicle services and you noted growth potential with the Falcon 9. How does that tie into the need to address the satellite constellation resupply markets, which tend to use smaller rockets and CubeSats with the push towards miniaturisation? What growth opportunity might that provide for SpaceX?
13.
How do you imagine the future of launch site development? How will this infrastructure continue to be built out? Will it be shared sites or single-owned? How do you interpret companies focusing on air launch vs the more traditional launch ports?
14.
What trends do you expect in rocket launch vehicles? We discussed Starship and the ease of scalability on using launch ports and many of SpaceX’s rockets. Could heavy launch vehicles such as the Starship or New Glenn displace existing medium-to-large or smaller launch vehicles with 1,000-15,000kg payloads?
15.
How do you assess the need for increasing infrastructure such as last-mile support in space, especially considering the potential trend towards larger vehicles, SpaceX’s ride-share offering and companies such as Momentus? Could SpaceX ever address this, given some of its capabilities?
16.
Is there anything else that you would like to add?
17.
How do you imagine potential consolidation in the market? Could SpaceX participate in any M&A activity, especially with so many providers entering the market? The company’s overarching goal is colonising Mars but, as you noted, we have created the space economy in the short term.
18.
What is your short-term outlook for SpaceX? What key questions should we ask about the company?
