Specialist
Former Director, Scheduled Revenue at Ryanair Holdings plc
Agenda
- Review of Ryanair (LON: RYA) results
- Opportunities upon exiting the coronavirus crisis and threats from other LCCs (low-cost carriers) and legacy carriers
- Ryanair's capacity planning ability amid unpredictable demand given ad-hoc lockdowns across Europe
Questions
1.
What are your key takeaways from Ryanair’s Q4 2020 figures?
2.
Ryanair had 1.9 million passengers in December 2020 and 1.3 million in January 2021. That 0.6 million difference, especially across a fairly low base, is bigger than in previous years. What do you make of the start to 2021 in terms of passenger numbers?
3.
Some say the airline industry across Europe has learned from the first lockdown about the issue of having too much capacity in the market. With the new lockdown and particularly the new variants, it is pulling out capacity to a far greater extent, with the view that it’s better to pull back more capacity and put a little bit on rather than leave too much on the market. Would you agree with that, especially with Ryanair’s 90% reduction figure?
4.
Do you think Ryanair’s passenger numbers could go lower?
5.
Ryanair’s scheduled revenue per passenger was just over EUR 22 in Q4 2020, compared to a scheduled revenue per passenger range of EUR 37-40 over the last couple of years. Is the scheduled revenue per passenger essentially the average fare per passenger? If so, is that what you would have expected?
6.
Ryanair talks about what it calls the illegal state support for many of its flag carrier peers. If you combine the fact that they’ve been bailed out and their relatively fixed cost structures, it would suggest that there is some danger of these flag carriers dumping capacity on the market when they judge there is sufficient demand. Do you think there could be a pretty large decrease in their market yields in spring or summer 2021?
7.
Ryanair says the booking window has dramatically shortened. What does that mean for Ryanair operationally? What capacity adjustments will it need to make? What could it mean for yields and similar factors?
8.
Ryanair has had a pretty steady increase in ancillary revenue per passenger. In 2017 it had EUR 14.83 ancillary revenue per passenger. That went up to EUR 19.65 in 2020, and then over the last couple of quarters it has been level at just over EUR 20. What is your outlook for ancillary revenue per passenger? Do you think it will continue its steady increase, or do you think the coronavirus could catalyse a greater rate of change?
9.
Do you have any thoughts on the ceiling for total revenue take per passenger before Ryanair starts to compete with some of the flag carriers? It seemed to be about EUR 55-60 per head in previous years. Would you say that EUR 60 is about the limit, or would that be even higher?
10.
Do you think there is still more to be done to get more customers using the services that Ryanair offers such as reserved seating and priority boarding?
11.
In summer 2020 Ryanair’s revenue per passenger was in the low 60s, EUR 42 on the fares, and then another EUR 20 in the ancillaries. Why do you think the fares that summer were so much higher than they have been historically?
12.
What do you make of the news that Ryanair is taking basically all of EasyJet’s slots at Stansted?
13.
Do you expect Ryanair to continue taking market share from EasyJet and the flag carriers?
14.
Do you think that Wizz Air is a material threat to Ryanair? Or do you think that Wizz Air is simply on its own trajectory and there will be plenty of room for both in the market?
15.
What do you think are the greatest risks for Ryanair?
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