Specialist
Former Head, Oil Industry & Markets Division at International Energy Agency
Agenda
- Supply response to price recovery and OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) policy
- Outlook for demand recovery and key factors
- IEA's (International Energy Agency's) recent net zero roadmap and impact on oil demand
- Implications for CAPEX
Questions
1.
Why have market prices for oil recovered so rapidly over the last 12 months?
2.
The collapse in demand and negative prices were a shock but what has surprised you most about the recovery? Is it how quickly demand has returned, OPEC [Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries] discipline or other aspects?
3.
What might be the impact of the COVID-19 vaccines on the demand recovery? Is there more to come from global demand growth as more vaccines get rolled out, or has most of that taken place?
4.
Is India’s struggle and coronavirus crisis management having an impact on oil demand, or is any impact being overcome by the pick-up in other countries?
5.
What are your expectations for China given that imports surged and prices collapsed in 2020, but seem to have cooled more recently? Is this a concern in the market?
6.
What capacity do you think Iran could bring back if an agreement were to be reached? How might that impact the oil price?
7.
Do you have any expectations for what we should hear from OPEC next week? Prices have been on the rise and inventories are coming down. What’s the decision to make here?
8.
US oil production hasn’t changed since our last Forum Interview [see Global Oil Market – Cyclical & Secular Challenges – 8 February 2021] despite a big price recovery. Why the lack of response in US oil production? Is it something structural or is it a timing issue around oil production coming back?
9.
Do you expect US oil production to reach a new high if investment picks up in the US during 2023-25, or was the high watermark around late 2019 to early 2020?
10.
You expect demand to grow through to the end of the decade but have you noticed any significant demand trend changes since the recovery began? Is it more sensitive to price or different parts of the economy?
11.
What remaining catch-up is necessary in aviation? Even if some of it doesn’t return, does long-distance aviation represent a material portion of global oil demand?
12.
Countries and companies are pledging or promising to get to net zero by 2040-50. Do you think this is realistic?
13.
You commented on energy intensity getting a 4% improvement or 3x the rate achieved over the last 25 years. How can that happen? Is there any historical precedent where something similar occurred? Do EVs [electric vehicles] have the potential to make that kind of improvement?
14.
What makes you sceptical about EV adoption? Is it the ability to manufacture and sell them or that it’s a niche market?
15.
What might you be monitoring at the Glasgow UN Climate Change COP26 [Conference of the Parties] in November 2021? What could impact your outlook on oil demand? Is there anything specific given that it’s been over five years since the Paris Agreement?
16.
What price ranges would you expect for oil over the next year or so, given the shifting dynamics, demand recovery and supply issues?
