Specialist
CEO & Head, Oil Research at CMarkits Ltd
Agenda
- Global oil demand recovery drivers and scenarios
- Oil supply capacity and constraints
- Outlook for OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) policy changes and implications
- Geopolitical factors influencing oil markets
Questions
1.
How significant was the oil demand decline in 2020 when the trough took place?
2.
What are your expectations for 2021 demand growth? Do you think demand in any regions or markets will be higher this year than in 2019?
3.
Do you expect oil demand in India to grow or contract in 2021? How important is India to the wider market?
4.
Have you noticed oil demand directly responding to vaccination rates, or do lockdowns of economies have bigger effects? Is it too soon to tell how these factors impact demand?
5.
You mentioned that India is the second-largest oil importer behind China. China stepped in and raised imports in 2020 when prices collapsed. What are your expectations for China?
6.
What do you expect from 2022 demand, or do you think it is too soon to estimate?
7.
How do you think about longer-term factors such as peak demand and the energy transition? Do you think oil demand will peak? Alternatively, could it never peak and the growth rate just slows?
8.
What key trends should we be aware of around the response of non-OPEC [Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries] and non-US supply to higher oil prices?
9.
How do you think the situation in Iran will play out as it relates to the oil market? What capacity do you expect in the short and medium term? Are there sales of inventory that could be made that could disrupt the market?
10.
Is there demand for Iranian crude oil? Are there certain markets that would be a logical destination for these barrels, such as China or India?
11.
How are you analysing US supply? The rig count has been rising but production has not. Has something structural changed in the US? Alternatively, is it timing and there will be a production response at some point?
12.
Do you think US oil production will ever return to 13 million barrels per day?
13.
Are you optimistic or pessimistic around OPEC’s ability to manage the oil market?
14.
Do you think the rise in oil prices increases cohesion among the OPEC+ group, or does it incentivise cheating? Do you think Saudi Arabia and Russia will have to spend more time trying to increase compliance?
15.
What is the right level of production that you expect for OPEC in 2021? What do you expect to hear from it in next week’s meeting?
16.
You mentioned the impact of the lift in Iranian sanctions. What range of prices would you expect for the balance of the year?
17.
What do you think is the biggest upside risk to prices? Is it stronger demand onr more vaccinations? Are you concerned about a supply outage or tighter OPEC policies?
18.
There’s been OPEC meetings where Iran becomes an issue. Would you expect that next week, or does it depend on what has happened around sanctions?
19.
Are there any issues or concerns you’d like to raise for H2 2021 and into 2022? What should we monitor?
