Specialist
Former technology manager at Industrie De Nora SpA.
Agenda
- Order outlook, highlighting timeline for large order intake
- Hydrogen per kilogram pricing outlook, focusing on Nel’s (OSL: NEL) 2025 USD 1.5 per kilogram target and delta vs natural gas
- Commoditisation in PEM (proton-exchange membrane), including outlook and threats from SOEC (solid oxide electrolysis cell)
- Competitive landscape and technology comparison
Questions
1.
How different is the landscape in hydrogen now compared to previous exciting periods? Do you think the current excitement around the hydrogen space is unique over the last 40 years?
2.
How would you rank the major hydrogen competitors – Siemens, Plug Power, Cummins, Nel, Thyssenkrupp and ITM?
3.
Why do you think Ineos would be good in the hydrogen space, including any of the company’s core competencies?
4.
Why do you think Thyssenkrupp Nucera has won several, or pretty much all, of the large contracts that have come out recently? The company was formerly known as Uhde.
5.
Do you think Nel and ITM will be able to catch up to Thyssenkrupp?
6.
If Ineos decides to enter the green hydrogen electrolyser market, do you think the company’s ranking will be alongside Nucera or Nel?
7.
When are you expecting more 100MW orders to come through? Are the ones that we’ve seen come through for Thyssenkrupp just testing, or might this be the beginning of many 100MW orders starting to flow through?
8.
Would you expect Asahi Kasei to start to play in the European market?
9.
What are your market share expectations for the large projects across Nucera, Asahi Kasei, Nel and Ineos?
10.
Do you think PEM [proton-exchange membrane] will overtake alkaline in TCO [total cost of ownership] and be useful for large industrial projects, or will PEM always only be used for decentralised small projects?
11.
Do you think the decentralised model works? Do you think transportation is more likely to be decentralised or centralised?
12.
What are your thoughts on cost decline over time? Nel’s target is very punchy at USD 1.5 per kilogram of hydrogen produced by 2025. That includes efficiency, electricity costs and CAPEX. The electricity cost has risen quite a bit since this was discussed. In a previous Forum Interview [see ITM – Competitive Landscape & Hydrogen Electrolysers Outlook – 5 May 2022] we discussed the break-even with grey hydrogen, which I think we said was around USD 6. Do you think that target is reachable given the current landscape and ability to reduce CAPEX costs due to efficiency improvements of production?
13.
Do you think green hydrogen can break even with grey hydrogen?
14.
What do you think about SOEC [solid oxide electrolysis cell]?
15.
What are your expectations for global megawatt orders for hydrogen electrolysers in total over 2022? Your expectations are that the 100MW orders are not a one-off and that this kind of order will become more common.
