Specialist
Former executive at NCR Corp
Agenda
- NCR’s (NYSE: NCR) operating environment and performance implications of the broader macroeconomic environment
- Competitive assessment of NCR vs ATM and self-service retail hardware peers such as Diebold (NYSE: DBD) and Hyosung (KRX: 004800)
- NCR’s prospects to be taken private and potential carve-out strategies
- 3-5-year performance outlook, highlighting key catalysts and risks
Questions
1.
What are your thoughts on NCR’s operating environment, pulling out 2-3 key trends or drivers we should monitor?
2.
How would you grade NCR’s progress so far with the transition from historical hardware model to more of a SaaS and software-plus-services-type model? Do you have any additional commentary on the company’s recent organisational changes in reporting between Q1 and Q2 2022, as it breaks out more of its
subsegments?
3.
Could you give a percentage to NCR’s progress? How should we think about the trajectory from here? What are some catalysts or limiting factors for further progress?
4.
What are the most substantial potential risks to NCR’s further execution with the transition? You seem to trust the company’s leadership, but could any exogenous factors limit progress?
5.
Which segments might NCR lean on for growth going forward? What might fall by the wayside? You alluded to asset repurposing.
6.
How would you characterise the demand environment for the retail and banking sides?
7.
How should we assess the macroeconomic environment as it relates to the performance of NCR’s retail and banking segments? You referenced the company’s improvement in supply chain operations, which seems to be a huge issue across NCR and Diebold’s ATM businesses. Could you elaborate on your comments and what it implies for its performance?
8.
Where are we in the ATM-as-a-service model adoption cycle? What does a further adoption timeline look like?
9.
Could you elaborate on the untapped market and how you see NCR positioning itself?
10.
Do you have any additional thoughts on Diebold’s future performance, considering the operational challenges it’s facing, the challenging operating environment and the assumption of a deteriorating macro picture?
11.
How are you assessing recession risk against demand for the retail side? Could this cause capital outlay deferrals from some customers, or would it be more resilient?
12.
How are you assessing the competitive landscape in the retail segment? You mentioned Square and Clover as potential threats coming up the market, so could you expand on that?
13.
What can we track or monitor to act as a canary in the coal mine and see if players are starting to make meaningful strides towards competing?
14.
You painted a rosy picture for NCR’s competitive positioning in both its key markets, but who would you say represents the most meaningful competitive threat to the business?
15.
Is building a bespoke in-house model becoming easier for players? Does this represent a more meaningful threat every year?
16.
What are your thoughts on the potential sale of NCR and strategic alternatives the business is exploring? What might be the most likely outcomes?
17.
The hospitality segment is top of mind for potential carve-outs, but what about other segments? Do you foresee any challenges in separating specific businesses from NCR?
18.
How should we think about potential bidders for NCR’s hospitality business?
19.
How should we assess possible valuation multiples for NCR’s hospitality business given the scale of the customer base, despite the tech side perhaps lagging somewhat and the state of capital markets?
20.
NCR has discussed changing their geographic footprint, so how do you see that panning out?
21.
At the end of NCR’s global footprint changes, are you expecting more concentration on North America and maybe APAC given the outsourcing the company does there, or is it more nuanced than that?
22.
What would you track around NCR’s acquisition, potentially by PE? What news flow out of this situation would you not want to see that could meaningfully impact the company’s competitive positioning and performance trajectory, based on the potential acquirer’s decisions?
23.
Do you have any additional thoughts on potential M&A from NCR or industry peers?
24.
What would you say are the biggest barriers to executing on the payment strategy?
25.
Is there anything else worth highlighting that we haven’t discussed, or do you hold a contrarian view on NCR or any peers?
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