Specialist
Former wholesale area manager at Moncler SpA
Agenda
- Moncler's (TAA: MONC) organic growth outlook across categories, regions and channels, discussing pricing trends
- Channel mix outlook – retail vs wholesale vs online, including potential to increase latter’s penetration
- Stone Island integration progress and further growth opportunities
- Expansion opportunities and operating margin outlook
Questions
1.
What’s your 2022 organic growth outlook for the Moncler brand and how might that differ across the three key regions, EMEA, APAC and the US?
2.
The Moncler brand grew 36% in Q1-Q3 2021 vs 2020 and 4% vs 2019. Can we expect this trend to continue in 2022?
3.
What might be Moncler’s continued organic growth rate in 2022 vs 2021? Can we expect it to be in the 30s percentage points?
4.
Why do you think Moncler is doing so well in China, given other luxury players have experienced a slowdown in the market?
5.
Why is Moncler’s performance particularly resilient in China? You mentioned Chinese customers shopping domestically while they aren’t travelling, but that’s apparent across all luxury brands.
6.
How might the Mondogenius campaign launch impact Moncler’s organic growth?
7.
What’s your outlook for non-outerwear penetration? You mentioned it’s around 20-30%. How do you expect that to change and over what time frame?
8.
How long might it take Moncler to reach 40% non-outerwear penetration?
9.
Which of Moncler’s categories are most attractive for expansion?
10.
How large could the shoe category become for Moncler?
11.
You said shoes are unlikely to impact ASP, but what could be shoes’ sales penetration in the total mix?
12.
How important is sustainability for the Moncler customer, which the company is working on?
13.
Could the push towards sustainability threaten Moncler’s organic growth profile, given it has a track record of using down and fur?
14.
How does pricing differ for sustainable vs traditional core products?
15.
What’s your organic growth outlook for the Stone Island brand within the Moncler Group?
16.
Could Stone Island match Moncler’s 30-40% share in APAC? You said there is a lot of growth potential.
17.
What’s Stone Island’s maximum store number in China? For how long can it open 2-4 stores per year?
18.
What is a reasonable annual store opening rate globally for Stone Island?
19.
What’s a sustainable store opening rate for Moncler in 2022-23? I believe it has around 233 stores.
20.
What is Moncler’s maximum store number?
21.
Do you expect Moncler’s wholesale vs D2C channel split to change?
22.
What is an optimal wholesale vs retail split for Moncler?
23.
Management says Moncler’s online penetration is roughly 15%. How does this split between D2C and wholesale?
24.
What’s your 2-3-year online growth outlook for Moncler? How do you expect penetration to change?
25.
Why do you think Moncler’s D2C online channel has not been so strong historically? What have been the key challenges?
26.
What’s your outlook for Moncler Group’s operating margins? They’ve varied significantly over the last few years – they reached the high 30s at one point – and management is talking about 28-29%.
27.
Gucci and Louis Vuitton’s operating margins are approaching 40%, so why is Moncler’s margin profile much lower?
28.
What is Moncler’s maximum margin profile, given its ready-to-wear skew?
29.
What are Moncler’s key opportunities to improve operating margins? What leverage does the company have or what cost lines can it flex?
30.
What’s the risk of short-term inflation and potential pressure on Moncler’s margins?
31.
Is there scope to continue increasing prices above inflation? Moncler is considering raising prices by high single digits towards the end of 2022. Is this a sustainable strategy?
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