Specialist
Former senior program manager at Mobileye NV
Agenda
- ADAS – advanced level adoption trends and chip content growth
- Competitive positioning and market share dynamics of upcoming generations of ADAS vs Ambarella (NASDAQ: AMBA), Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and others
- EyeQ SoC (system on a chip) differentiation and software and revenue growth outlook
- Long-term outlook for Mobileye and the ADAS market
Questions
1.
Could you share your overview of the ADAS market and the progress made towards AVs [autonomous vehicles] over the last 2-3 years?
2.
Could you elaborate on the challenges to addressing L3 and L4 ADAS and the adoption of those systems?
3.
Could you clarify the types of new sensors or cameras you’re referring to? Is there a specific technology that you think would be well-suited to L3 and L4, or is this a more general statement?
4.
What components are needed for a fully functioning L2 or L2+ ADAS system in production today, including the cameras, sensors and processors? How much variability is there in auto OEM [original equipment manufacturer] and tier 1 supplier decision-making around types or numbers of sensors or cameras?
5.
What is the average cost of the components you outlined? Could you estimate content per car based on the number of cameras and sensors?
6.
Could you estimate the potential costs of L3 and L4 ADAS? You said the technology isn’t entirely there yet, but how could the content trend as we move up levels?
7.
Do you doubt the number of processors per vehicle – such as the EyeQ processors or Ambarella’s CVflow processors – will increase at higher autonomy levels? Could the number inflect upwards with additional content, or is there no need for additional processors?
8.
How could components costs trend over the next few years? Do you expect cost erosion under pressure from key customers or for pricing to decrease to facilitate adoption? What’s your outlook across the manufacturers and auto OEMs?
9.
Could you give an overview of Mobileye’s competitive history? What’s enabled it to take a dominant share in this market and what underpins its value proposition’s strength?
10.
Do you think Mobileye can sustain a market advantage through L3 and L4 ADAS systems given the variety of competition entering the sector? What market share do you think it can maintain?
11.
You said that Nvidia, Qualcomm, Renesas and Ambarella have started to produce plans to address ADAS. Which of those competitors do you think is the greatest threat to Mobileye? What market share do you think Mobileye will have in ADAS in a few years?
12.
Sources suggest that a potential advantage for auto OEMs of choosing Ambarella chips is their customisability – this could allow those players to differentiate by building up their own computer division processes and keeping a tight focus on what they want to do internally. Do you think there’s merit to this argument? Would Ambarella need a partner in the same way that Qualcomm and Veoneer have partnered together to inflect to a higher growth rate in the automotive sector? Is this a limiting factor for the company?
13.
How many years’ lead does Mobileye have in the software stack around the SoC [system on a chip] relative to Qualcomm and Ambarella? How important is having a lead in the ecosystem around the product itself?
14.
You referenced REM or Road Experience Management as a key fulcrum in Mobileye’s longer-term play towards ADAS. To what extent could this be a differentiator for Mobileye vs peers that are also trying to offer SoCs? Is this a needle-mover for tier 1 suppliers?
15.
Could you compare Mobileye’s data mapping assets to those of alternative providers? To what extent are they differentiated? Is there a significant gap that could allow the company to monetise the data more aggressively in the future?
16.
Could you elaborate on the data ownership and the structure of the agreements with the OEMs? You said both parties own it.
17.
How do Mobileye and Tesla’s full-AV strategies differ? You said it’s critical for Mobileye’s longer-term competitive positioning to be considered a dominant AV supplier and that the company is already a leader here. What’s your longer-term outlook on who wins this race? Could you also touch on Nvidia, Waymo and any other vendors that you think have done well here?
18.
Could you elaborate on Tesla and its AV strategy? Have you noticed automotive manufacturers bringing more advanced processing work in-house? Could this trend gain momentum?
19.
How do you expect Mobileye to approach imaging radar given the recent announcement that it’s developing its own lidar sensor that works on FMCW [frequency-modulated continuous wave]? What’s your reaction to the company stepping in and taking more ownership?
20.
What could be a steady annual top-line growth rate for Mobileye over the next few years given the market share pressures and secular tailwinds we’ve discussed? What major risk factors could drive top line upwards or downwards?
21.
How are deals structured with the major tier 1 suppliers? When would design wins today translate into market share shifts for Ambarella or Qualcomm? What is the earliest point at which market share could shift away from Mobileye if players do decide to go a different direction?
22.
How do you assess parent company Intel’s relationship and involvement with Mobileye? To what extent has Mobileye been financially supported by the company, and to what degree could this continue? How far will Intel support the lead that Mobileye has in this sector?
23.
Could you give a range-estimate of Mobileye’s operating and gross margins or otherwise give us a sense of the business’ profitability?
24.
What are your concluding thoughts on Mobileye and the future of its ADAS and AV opportunities?
