Specialist
Former director at Merlin Entertainments plc
Agenda
- 2021-23 attendance expectations for Legoland Parks and Midways, including Merlin's (LON: MERL) pricing strategies
- New York Legoland opening timeline, attendance and EBITDA generation
- Margin and cash flow dynamics in 2021-23
Questions
1.
What could the reopening timeline be for Merlin’s attractions in the US? Legoland Florida is open, though we don’t yet have a date for Legoland California.
2.
What are the capacity restrictions in the US and how might that evolve in 2021?
3.
What are the typical break-even occupancy levels for US attractions? How might that differ in theme parks such as Legoland vs Midway attractions?
4.
What’s your outlook for 2021 attendance in parks vs Midway attractions in the US?
5.
What does Florida’s opening indicate about pent-up demand and potential attendance in 2021 vs pre coronavirus?
6.
What are your expectations for attendance across 2022-23 in parks vs Midway attractions?
7.
How could pricing evolve in 2021, given the potentially challenging demand environment for both parks and Midway attractions?
8.
What’s your outlook for a UK reopening timeline? The UK is obviously in a hard lockdown right now.
9.
How reliant are the UK Midway attractions on international tourism? What’s your attendance outlook there in 2021?
10.
How do break-even levels in the UK market compare to the US for parks vs Midway attractions?
11.
Are your expectations for growth and recovery in the UK market similar to your expectations for the US? Could it also experience a bumper 2022 and full recovery by 2023?
12.
Could what seems like a boom in staycations and domestic spend in the UK potentially offset the loss from international tourism for Merlin?
13.
What’s your outlook for a realistic opening timeline for the new attraction park in New York? We’ve been told it could be sometime in 2021.
14.
How competitive do you think this New York park is vs peers, running through factors such as size, price, attractions and location?
15.
What are your expectations for attendance in the New York park across its first three years?
16.
What is your rough estimate for EBITDA generation from the New York park across its first three years?
17.
What’s the average ticket price per person likely to be in the New York park?
18.
Could you outline any industry metrics which could indicate the rough on-park spend?
19.
What is your estimate for EBITDA generation for Merlin in 2021? If the company does well and reaches 75% of 2019 revenue, how would that translate to EBITDA generation in 2021 vs 2019?
20.
Do you think Merlin’s reductions in fixed costs will be permanent? To what extent can the business operate with a lower cost base post-coronavirus vs pre-coronavirus?
21.
Are you expecting higher net EBITDA margins post-coronavirus, from late 2022-23 onwards?
22.
How much more personnel or marketing expenses can be cut if there is an extended lockdown period beyond what’s already anticipated?
23.
What is the bare minimum CAPEX requirement for Merlin Entertainments in 2021 that cannot be cut or delayed?
24.
How reasonable do you think the reports are that indicate a potential GBP 200m CAPEX in 2021 for Merlin, which would include Legoland New York as well as Legoland Korea CAPEX?
25.
Do you have an estimate for best- and worst-case scenarios for 2021 cash burn? Merlin burnt roughly GBP 550m in cash in 2020.
