Specialist
Project manager at Cariad SE
Agenda
- Mercedes-Benz’s (ETR: MBG) volume outlook and pricing dynamics in light of semiconductor shortage, Russia-Ukraine situation and EV (electric vehicle) growth
- Product portfolio analysis of Mercedes vs BMW (ETR: BMW) and Tesla (NYSE: TLSA)
- Margin improvement scope, discussing outlook for EV margins and profitability across model types
Questions
1.
What is your outlook for Mercedes-Benz’s volume growth or decline in 2022 vs 2021?
2.
What do you think is driving the volume uptick you highlighted towards 2.2-2.3 million? We saw 1.9 million volumes in FY21.
3.
What impact do you think the Russia-Ukraine situation could have on volumes in 2022?
4.
Do you think Mercedes has sufficient capacity in alternative markets to offset the shortfall from Ukraine?
5.
How long do you think it will take Mercedes to fill the backlog of components? Is there any short-term challenge here where there’ll be a complete drop-off in capacity until we ramp up in other geographies?
6.
Do you think only Mercedes can offset the disruption from the Russia-Ukraine situation or can the entire market approach it in a similar fashion?
7.
Are wire harnesses the only component that’s threatened by the Ukraine supply shortage or are there additional components at risk?
8.
What are you expecting throughout 2022 around semiconductor capacity, given you mentioned a possible easing leading to an uptick in volume growth?
9.
How do you think Mercedes’ chip access compares to other premium German OEMs’ [original equipment manufacturers’], if we look at BMW and any others that come to mind?
10.
We’re also hearing about OEMs thinking about in-housing chips in the long term. What do you think Mercedes’ approach could be here?
11.
How could Mercedes approach additional insourcing of components such as wire harnesses, control switches and relay components?
12.
What would be your 2023-25 outlook for Mercedes’ volume growth in a scenario where we don’t see conflict in Ukraine and Russia?
13.
How do you expect the luxury model mix to grow for Mercedes relative to total volumes over 2022-25, given we’re hearing about the shift towards prioritisation of luxury models within the total mix?
14.
What do you think are the other factors that lead to Mercedes’ steady increase rather than any large increases?
15.
Could you elaborate on why you think BMW is selling more BEVs [battery electric vehicles] than Mercedes already, given it’s only recently changed its approach?
16.
How do you think the BEV and PHEV [plug-in hybrid electric vehicle] share is likely to develop for Mercedes relative to total volumes in 2022-25?
17.
How competitive are the Mercedes-Benz EV models being launched in the market, considering factors such as price, range and charge time?
18.
How is Mercedes positioned vs Tesla and Lucid?
19.
What are your expectations for Mercedes’ BEV unit costs?
20.
How confident are you that a slower top-line growth but a higher focus on luxury models will lead to some sort of structurally higher margin for Mercedes?
21.
What do you think has been the priority for Mercedes-Benz in terms of software? Software is increasingly becoming a crucial part of the story for premium OEMs.
22.
Where do you think the gaps are currently in software or where do you think Mercedes-Benz needs to improve when we think about key future software improvement requirements?
23.
What do you view as the key monetisation opportunities for Mercedes?
24.
How do you think about the over-the-air-updates opportunity in terms of monetisation?
