Specialist
Former senior executive at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence Ltd
Agenda
- Lithium supply overview, areas of constraint and growth opportunities
- Technology innovations such as DLE (direct lithium extraction)
- Demand pressures, including EV usage and impact of auto OEM contracts on commercialisation
- Access dynamics across miners, battery material manufacturers, cell manufacturers and auto OEMs
- H2 2022 outlook, highlighting supply-demand expectations and production across Chile, Bolivia, Argentina, Australia and China
Questions
1.
How would you compare salt pan vs mine extraction methods? Do you see one gaining the majority of share in the long run or will these be leading technologies in certain regions?
2.
Livent is one of the few lithium majors currently in operation using a proprietary DLE [direct lithium extraction] process. How important is this process in general and how do you see it defining the competitive landscape in salt pan extraction?
3.
Do any players have a meaningful competitive advantage on technology in DLE or are you seeing this as largely more beneficial for the sector as a whole and improving yields and output?
4.
When do you expect DLE to be commercially widespread?
5.
Do any players have DLE out? Does Livent have it live already? Is there going to be a meaningful advantage for the company?
6.
LieNA is a different technology on the mine extraction side from Ansto and Lithium Australia. How long might it be until this becomes commercially available and the extraction rates are pretty similar to increases on the DLE side for salt pan, which go from 50-70% extraction rates to over 95% with vastly reduced energy costs? The pros seem pretty clear.
7.
Tesla chair Robyn Denholm has mentioned Australia’s need to increase lithium processing capacity, given most of the geography’s output is unprocessed supplies. What is the current supply-demand balance for lithium extraction and refining capacity, in tonnage?
8.
Where have you been expecting the majority of supply growth to come from, whether it’s in the lithium triangle of Chile, Bolivia and Argentina, or in Australia or China?
9.
What does the lithium constraint mean for EV sales and production? Do you have a view on the top limit on EVs produced as a result of the constraint?
10.
How many million EVs do you think can be produced in 2023, 2025 and 2027?
11.
Do you think the lithium market is going to remain tight until new technologies come in?
12.
How do you see the pricing developing up to 2027 for lithium, when it seems as though the technology could change things quite meaningfully? Do you expect it to continue to reach new highs as things remain tight?
13.
Do you expect the USD 100,000 pricing per tonne to remain over the 4-5-year period of tightness we’ve discussed, or are you expecting incremental pricing over the 2-3 years of tightness after that time as well?
14.
In Chile, BYD won a government contract to mine lithium, and the indigenous residents took to the streets demanding the tender be cancelled over concerns about the impact on local water supplies. The Chilean Supreme Court threw out the award in June 2022, saying that the government failed to consult with the indigenous people first. What’s your outlook for potential capacity growth in Chile? Do you see this getting overturned and could water issues be fixed?
15.
How much additional growth do you expect from Chile over the next 3-5 years, in tonnage?
16.
The Bolivian government nationalised its lithium industry years ago but has yet to produce meaningful amounts of the metal. Might more developed countries or technologies enter this geography and help to ramp up production? Do you ever expect to see meaningful amounts of lithium production out of Bolivia?
17.
How many tonnes do you expect to come out of Bolivia over the next 3-5 years, if anything?
18.
Outputs are only just starting to take off in Argentina, and you mentioned the easier legal framework. How many tonnes would you expect to come out of Argentina in the next 3-5 years?
19.
How much expansion do you expect to see coming out of Australia and China?
20.
How are you seeing lithium output develop in China?
21.
Tesla chair Robyn Denholm said Australia needs to increase lithium processing capacity to meet surging demand. The geography accounts for about half of all unprocessed supplies of lithium, but only 7% of refined lithium. How likely is it that this capacity will be built? We’ve alluded to the potential of it happening. How would this change the dynamic?
22.
Auto and cell OEMs and battery chemical cathode manufacturers are all looking to secure contracts with lithium producers. Which player type is best-positioned with their lithium contracts, and how do you see them levering those contracts to give themselves power within the value chain?
23.
Do you think cathode manufacturers have lost their head start on having longer-term relationships with lithium players? How are Umicore and BASF positioned in the market?
