Specialist
Former Director at Johnson Matthey plc
Agenda
- Technological roadmap for LFP (lithium iron phosphate) vs NMC (nickel manganese cobalt) batteries
- LFP patents and timeline for European adoption
- Expectations for auto market segmentation in Europe and impact on LFP and NMC market shares
- Impact on cathode materials manufacturers based on market share expectations for LFP vs NMC
Questions
1.
Can you outline how LFP [lithium iron phosphate] patents have prevented uptake and export to Europe? Do you think that is likely to change in the coming years in a meaningful way?
2.
Is LFP’s return to the market predicated on any patents rolling off?
3.
Could cell or cathode material manufacturers in China build out LFP capacity in Europe or export LFP battery cells there if they wanted to, given the patent restrictions?
4.
How much share do you expect LFP vs NMC [nickel manganese cobalt] vs NMA [nickel manganese aluminium] to have in Europe, given consumer buying behaviours and preferences?
5.
What are your thoughts on the technology roadmap left for these chemistries? Could you highlight any chemistries with particularly extended technology roadmaps that would enable them to win vs peers in improvements and reducing costs?
6.
Do you think energy density will become less important and other elements such as safety will become more important as energy density reaches a functional limit, whereby increasing energy density no longer impacts performance?
7.
What would you expect to be the difference in the price of an NMC car vs a LFP car? How much better might the range be for an NMC car?
8.
How do you think customers’ considerations around range might develop? Do you think there’s a strong argument that as EV [electric vehicle] charging infrastructure builds out and development in faster charging comes into play, that range could become less important?
9.
Do you think that the LFP market share gain will impact the utilisation of NMC plants from players such as Johnson Matthey, Umicore and BASF? Alternatively, has LFP market share been predictable for long enough that it won’t impact build-out plans?
10.
What do you think about elements around LFP vs NMC such as raw material constraints, sustainability concerns relating to cobalt and how easy LFP batteries are to recycle vs NMC batteries?
11.
Is it easier to recycle an LFP battery just due to chemistries being more stable?
12.
Do you think LFP batteries could be sold as sustainable and more environmentally and socially conscious than NMC batteries?
13.
There’s eLNO at the high end of the market and LFP at the low end. Do you think this will cause particular concern for Johnson Matthey’s eLNO product? Do you think there will still be a market for this particularly high-end product?
14.
What were your assumptions for eLNO share pre-LFP coming back into the market? What are your thoughts on eLNO share now?
15.
Do you think Johnson Matthey can recover its CAPEX from its M&A project?
16.
What are the major materials in hydrogen fuel cells? How do the major hydrogen fuel cell material players compare?
17.
How strong is Johnson Matthey’s range of hydrogen fuel cell and electrolyser materials vs Umicore or other material players’?
18.
How does Johnson Matthey compare to a player such as De Nora?
19.
What do you think about market shares within the fuel cell materials business for Johnson Matthey vs other majors?
20.
What would you expect to be the unit margin on a hydrogen car vs an electric car for Johnson Matthey, if it is providing cathode materials, eLNO into the electric and fuel cells and materials and electrolyser materials for producing the hydrogen? Would you expect the unit margin to be higher or lower for hydrogen vs electric?
