Specialist
Senior Technical & Operation Executive at Indolakto PT
Agenda
- Market size, volume growth and pricing trends across dairy categories
- Competitive landscape and market share dynamics
- 2019 sector outlook
Questions
1.
What structural or cyclical trends have or will impact Indonesia’s dairy sector in 2019?
2.
Can you elaborate on the historical trend of UHT milk vs fresh milk?
3.
What is your 3-5 year growth outlook for UHT milk and fresh milk?
4.
How are consumer behaviours and preferences trending for dairy product purchases in Indonesia?
5.
You mentioned that the volumes of some categories have been increasing, but decreasing for others. Can you discuss dairy volume growth or decline trends across categories in Q4 2018 and Q1 2019?
6.
What are the growth volume drivers of liquid cream, cream, Yakult and milk?
7.
What percentage of volume comes through distribution channels such as modern trade, general mom-and- pop and speciality?
8.
Can you discuss supply chain dynamics for dairy products, given your expertise?
9.
Can you break down the key players and market share dynamics in Indonesia’s dairy market?
10.
How do you think Indonesia’s dairy market share dynamics will trend in the next few years? Do you foresee any changes?
11.
Can you assess dairy pricing trends across product categories? Do you categorise fresh milk as liquid milk?
12.
Is promotional activity going on? How does it compare to a year ago?
13.
What discounting trends do you expect in 2019-20?
14.
Can you compare local milk source dynamics to that of imported fresh milk?
15.
Where is the largest cattle production in Indonesia?
16.
What dairy breeds are most frequently used in Indonesia’s dairy farms?
17.
What is the average productivity of cattle in Indonesia compared to international standards?
18.
Around 77% of Indonesia’s raw materials for milk supply are imported, primarily from Australia and New Zealand. Why are only 23% of these raw materials produced locally?
19.
Has anything been done to improve domestic milk production? Do you foresee domestic milk production volume increasing in the next 2-3 years?
20.
Australia’s exports to Indonesia increased by 3.8% in 2013-18, on average. How do you expect imports to trend in the next 2-3 years?
21.
Can you elaborate on the pricing dynamics and foreign exchange effects of imported milk?
22.
Can you discuss taste preferences and affordability in relation to imported milk?
23.
Another question on imports and exports. Can you elaborate on the government policies and key regulations, including any current and expected changes, for example, tariffs, custom requirements for imported and exported milk from Indonesia?
24.
As a follow-up, I understand that the Australian-Indonesian dairy firm, Greenfields, built a USD 44.5m dairy farm in East Java as an expansion asset after its first dairy farm development in Malang. Greenfields’ Java farm is partnering with 250 local farms and by the end of 2020, it is targeted to reach maximum capacity of 10,000 dairy cows that produce up to 20 million litres of fresh milk annually. I understand that Greenfields’ secondary farm in Java operates with the latest technology and modern farming practices to maximise the productivity of cow’s milk and strengthen Greenfields as number one producer of fresh milk in Indonesia. What implications does this have on Greenfields’ competitors in Indonesia?
25.
I just wanted to spend a little time on yoghurt and sour milk, because you said that segment is growing. I read from a report that the category of yoghurt and sour milk is far from maturity, whereby the current volume of yoghurt consumed is only slightly more than half of the total potential for the market. What is your outlook for the demand in yoghurt and sour milk in Indonesia?
26.
Yakult continued to lead yoghurt and sour milk products in value terms in 2018, while Heavenly Nutrition’s rapid retail value growth in this category was supported by its new Greek-style drinking yoghurt and flavour extensions such as apple and pear. China-based dairy giant Mengniu opened a manufacturing plant in Cikarang and began selling Yoyic to 12,000 stores in major Indonesian cities in December 2018. How much market share do you expect Mengniu to take from existing players in Indonesia?
27.
You mentioned that many players from China, Vietnam and the EU are entering Indonesia’s dairy market, focusing on premium and mainstream products, last time we spoke. Can you comment on this?
28.
Are there any barriers to entry that players entering Indonesia’s dairy market should understand?
29.
Can you share any final remarks and an outlook on Indonesia’s dairy market?
