Specialist
Executive at Market Pulp Association
Agenda
- Paper and pulp industry overview and outlook – Q4 2019 into 2020
- Competitive landscape – major players and key differentiators
- Key market growth drivers – challenges and opportunities
- 2020 expectations and hurdles to overcome
Questions
1.
What is your updated perspective on the pulp and paper industry, and what key trends do you think investors should monitor?
2.
What demand trends and inventory levels are you noticing for pulp, and how does it differ across geographies?
3.
Are there structural or macro changes in the market causing the current low pricing, or is this just a pause before pricing inflation resumes? What is your outlook for pulp pricing in 2020, after the declines of 2019?
4.
You said there seems to be an inventory overhang in China. Is anything driving demand in that market higher or lower?
5.
Could you elaborate on the impacts of the US-China trade war?
6.
With China being such a key determinant in this market, how do you monitor inventory levels there?
7.
You said the European market, which has been quite depressed recently, can be underappreciated in some regard. Could you elaborate on your comments? Do you see upside there?
8.
I understand there is speculation that recovery in Europe could begin in 2020, with Stora Enso highlighted as the main potential beneficiary of that recovery. Do you have any thoughts on that statement?
9.
Has there been any impact from macro trends around sustainability that has driven any increase in the use of recycled fibre?
10.
We outlined that due to secular decline, paper has been depressed in the past several years, with a steady decline of about 3% per year in North America. Do you have any reason to believe that decline would begin to accelerate or decelerate at any point?
11.
Pricing in North America seems to have been favourable for the last several years, a very disciplined market, but there has been a history of international bad actors who have disrupted pricing. At this point, duties have been imposed, but do you think those bad actors have been negated at this point or have they found a way around those duties?
12.
What are your expectations for growth rates for speciality paper types such as self-adhesive, thermal, carbonless and glassine?
13.
In a previous Interview [Domtar Corp & the Paper Pulp Market – 30 September 2019], we suggested that an election year might influence the amount of paper products demand. Have you ever observed any sort of uplift from a US election?
14.
Do you expect any M&A in either Europe or America in 2020? If so, what would that look like? Are there truly synergies to be gained out there?
15.
I understand quite a lot of capacity has been transitioned from paper to paperboard or cardboard, especially in North America. Is that in line with your views, and has that been a mostly favourable transition for the pulp and paper market?
16.
Is there anything else you would like to mention, and could you summarise the key takeaways and expectations for the market going into 2020?
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