Specialist
Former divisional leader at International Energy Agency (IEA)
Agenda
- Supply disruption scenarios and impact of potential sanctions on Russian oil
- Policy response assessment and impact of strategic reserve releases
- Potential demand destruction from high prices and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, plus possible demand recovery in China post-pandemic
- Capital investment implications of the oil price and capacity
Questions
1.
Why have oil prices pulled back in recent weeks? Brent exceeded USD 130 just over one month ago and it’s down sharply again today.
2.
Do you think the oil price pullback is likely to continue? How do you weigh the two competing supply-demand forces?
3.
You said demand in China was lower than expected due to the lockdowns, at about 700,000 bpd [barrels per day] in March 2022 and one million bpd in April. Where do you get that data, and how does that compare to the previous lockdowns? Is it becoming more severe?
4.
Would the demand impact in China be proportional to population or industrial activity? What’s the difference between a lockdown in Shanghai and Beijing?
5.
You mentioned the US gasoline slowdown in response to high prices, and we’ve also seen a few policy moves in terms of cutting taxes and increasing the ethanol blend. How do you see this playing out for gasoline demand if prices continue to ease?
6.
US gasoline inventories look comfortable – they’re not out of range – but distillate inventories are extremely low. Can you explain the price and inventory differences? Why has this dispersion between the two fuels emerged?
7.
If we were having this conversation 18-20 months ago, we would probably be talking more about peak demand. Is the price surge over the last six months pulling forward the potential for peak oil demand?
Does it delay it with other issues? What are your latest thoughts on peak demand?
8.
What does 2022 look like for demand growth or contraction?
9.
How effective do you think the release of strategic reserves has been to date, and how is that oil finding its way to the market?
10.
If we say 240 million barrels were to be released into the market through October 2022, when would you expect it to be replaced, and how, or do we still have no idea?
11.
You outlined the drop of three million bpd from Russia. To clarify, do you expect any change in Russia’s productive capacity, or is this loss all former customers refusing to take the oil?
12.
What would the implications be if the EU goes ahead with banning imports of Russian oil?
13.
Where would be the most likely place Europe would replace Russian volumes from in the short term?
14.
You mentioned the oil price has been higher than what some countries are comfortable with. Is there a comfortable range for most buyers?
15.
You mentioned in a previous Interview [see Global Oil Market – Policy Impacts & 2022 Outlook – 8 December 2021] that OPEC’s [Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’] monthly meetings have allowed it to course-correct with the OPEC Plus agreement. It’s had a steady policy for almost two years. What happens when this agreement expires and it puts all the oil back or restores the oil cuts that took place immediately after the pandemic began?
16.
Can US oil production ever recover to pre-coronavirus levels?
17.
You mentioned demand now looking like under two million bpd. Where do you think supply growth will come out, or will it grow in 2022? What’s the net effect on inventories this year?
18.
What does the post-coronavirus recovery mean for the energy transition?
19.
We’ve talked about OPEC and COP27. Are you watching any other key things or events through 2022?
