Global Lithography Overview – Major Industry Trends & Environment Outlook

1.

Can you detail lithography? Why is this so important to the manufacturing of advanced semiconductor nodes?

2.

Could you highlight some of the most significant trends that are driving the complex subsector of lithography, other than the shortage?

3.

You mentioned Moore’s Law, and right now, even among the semiconductor industry, there seems to be some misconception as to the bipartisan forward view of Moore’s Law. You obviously have your enablers such as ASML and Intel, who are chasing the acceleration, but some say Moore’s Law is slowing down, or even that it’s dead. Apart from doubling transistor size or shrinking it by 50%, if we view the industry in a number of units standpoint, where do you think we are with Moore’s Law?

4.

In terms of a trajectory of what we will see companies start to differentiate or focus on in 2023 and beyond, out of chip density and power, what do you think will be the main target?

5.

Speaking of new markets, could you break down the global supply chain that’s crucial for lithography?

6.

Are there any misconceptions involving EUV [extreme ultraviolet] lithography, its use and cost-inefficient situations?

7.

How do you think dynamics will look around IC [integrated circuit] manufacturer dependence on ASML as we look towards 2023 and beyond?

8.

Companies such as Lam Research predict a 20% spending cut in WFE [wafer fab equipment] for the coming year. How do you assess the demand for lithography as we head into FY24?

9.

How do you view the new advancements we’ve seen in deposition and etching in the last year, and how companies have found ways around lithography?

10.

As the evolving macroeconomic environment unfolds into 2023 and beyond, as does the supply-demand imbalance, what are your predictions around total throughput trends?

11.

What are your expectations around the total number of wafers? Will we see anything different in terms of yields and defects?

12.

On a global scale, do you foresee any opportunities or super niches where companies can threaten or disrupt ASML’s market share in the next six months?

13.

Although DUV [deep ultraviolet] technology was introduced a long time ago and revolutionised, per se, can you break down how 193 immersion lithography continues to revolutionise the industry? What are you seeing from it today that we should pay attention to?

14.

What are the biggest yields or technical problems that you see with increasing or trying to increase NA [numerical aperture]?

15.

How do you think dry DUV tool intensity in more mature market segments such as analogue and microcontrollers compares to the tool intensity in more advanced market segments?

16.

You mentioned the transition from vertical to horizontal stacking, but we’re obviously seeing innovation here in nanosheets and the big need for dry tools for nanosheets. Many are saying this will be a breakthrough in innovation and the short-term solution. Do you agree or disagree, and how do you assess the opportunity among nanosheets?

17.

Looking at the industry from a more historical context, there has been a subsidisation effect where we see older tools from leading-edge applications being sold for either reuse or reconfiguration by manufacturers using more lagging-edge applications. How do you assess the current divide between lagging- and leading-edge manufacturing processes within the fabs?

18.

What do you think about the theory that exists today about the lessening of the demand or need for the reuse you mentioned? As DUV tools increase, is there a cannibalistic relationship at all across the two?

19.

As we evaluate the environment, especially post-passage of the CHIPS [Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors] and Science Act, how do you compare the dollar spend by companies used on dry DUV tools today vs historically, especially as we look forward to an environment where companies look to increase capacity?

20.

If you had to compare the reliance between DUV and EUV, how do you assess those dynamics over the next 24 months?

21.

We mentioned the roadblocks and challenges we’re seeing around EUV, especially with the defects and inconsistencies with it, but what would you say is the biggest challenge today? Is it cost or is it the lagging end on the R&D side?

22.

Could you break down ASML’s high-NA EUV machines, which are said to hit the market in 2025? Do you believe this is the solution we spoke about for current lithography issues?

23.

What are your thoughts about hyper-NA EUV? What might this entail, and can the industry even afford to develop this in the first place?

24.

What do you think needs to happen before we eclipse the 13.5nm threshold comfortably within EUV? Before the possibility, is it even necessary, considering the costs?

25.

Through a more geopolitical lens, post-passage of the CHIPS Act, you’re definitely familiar with the R&D sector, which is so crucial for equipment manufacturers. What do you think are the R&D implications for this subsector of equipment makers? How do you think companies will start to set themselves apart in order to receive incentives?

26.

On a more global scale, especially with recent export bans to China, how might this affect capabilities globally with companies such as UMC [United Microelectronics Corp], Smic and YMTC [Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp]? How will this trickle down into US companies?

27.

Globally, would you expect pricing adjustments to correctly respond to combat the inflationary and geopolitical risks?

28.

ASML recently talked about a large number of 600 DUV units for production, as well as 90 EUV units. This is significantly higher than what the company said at the last analyst day. Do you think this is justifiable, and if so, what will be primarily driving this?

29.

What’s your lithography industry outlook for 2023 and beyond? What are you looking for and what excites you most in this space?