Specialist
Deputy Director of Crude Oil Department at China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC)
Agenda
- Oil production capacity forecasts in major geographies
- 2020 global oil price prediction, impacts from supply and demand dynamics and major influencing factors
- Oil exploitation costs and petroleum transportation cost dynamics
- Domestic Chinese oil and gas companies’ 2020 profit prediction, noting implications of coronavirus outbreak
Questions
1.
Can you talk on the coronavirus outbreak’s influence on the global crude oil market and that in China? We noticed that the demand for oil decreases and the oil price and production capacity see new trends. What implications of the coronavirus outbreak deserve our attention?
2.
With the cancellation of high-speed trains and flights, the oil demand of China’s market decreases. Can you predict the decrease in the domestic demand for crude oil? What are the major decrease drivers?
3.
What are the crude oil inventories of major oil companies in China at present?
4.
The domestic crude oil inventory is quite high at present. Is it correct?
5.
What were the crude oil inventories of domestic oil companies before the coronavirus outbreak?
6.
What does the figure “10 million” refer to?
7.
What’s the coronavirus outbreak’s influence on the domestic crude oil production capacity? Many oil companies shut down temporarily because they can’t conduct exploitation or processing. What’s your prediction of the annual crude oil output of China?
8.
Can you predict the annual crude oil output of China in 2020?
9.
Is China’s annual crude oil output in 2020 similar to that in 2019?
10.
Due to the coronavirus outbreak, the domestic crude oil demand may not increase in Q1. What will be the annual crude oil demand of China’s market in 2020?
11.
Do you mean that China’s average daily crude oil demand will decrease by 200,000 barrels amid the coronavirus and increase by 300,000-500,000 barrels after that?
12.
What’s the specific influence of the coronavirus outbreak on China’s crude oil import volume?
13.
Do you mean the average daily import volume decreases by 1.5 million barrels?
14.
Can you predict the annual crude oil import volume of China in 2020? Will the figure increase after the coronavirus?
15.
What will be the changes in the crude oil import volume of China in 2021-22?
16.
China will annually import 600-700 million tonnes of crude oil in 2021-22. Is it correct?
17.
Will the domestic oil production capacity increase in 2021-22?
18.
What’s the growth rate of the domestic oil production capacity? You mentioned that the capacity in 2019 and 2020 is similar. How will it change in 2021-22?
19.
The domestic oil production capacity will slightly increase in 2021-22. Is it correct?
20.
Will the domestic oil production capacity be less than 200 million tonnes in 2021-22?
21.
The import volume of crude oil will increase by 100-200 million barrels in the future. Will there be changes in countries and regions from which China imports crude oil?
22.
How will the dynamics around 2020 be reflected? From what regions China may import more oil?
23.
Do you mean that the domestic companies will enlarge their imports from the US?
24.
Why do you think that the import of oil from the US will enlarge a lot, will it be impacted by China-US trade war?
25.
If China is expected to import 600-700 million barrels of oil in the next two years, what will be the specific import volumes from the Middle East, Africa, the Russian Far East and the US?
26.
Will China enlarge oil import mainly from Russia and West Africa?
27.
The oil prices fluctuate a lot, and the coronavirus outbreak will cause a series of knock-on effects. What will be the oil price at the end of 2020?
28.
What aspects have you referred in the prediction of USD 55-60 per barrel at the end of 2020?
29.
The transportation cost occurs in many processes, for example, loading, unloading, transportation and shipping oil from Africa, Russia and the Middle East to China. Are there significant changes in transportation cost?
30.
What level do you think that the transportation cost will reach?
31.
What will be the transportation cost at the end of 2020? Will it rise from USD 2 per barrel to USD 2.5 per barrel or USD 2.6 per barrel?
32.
In the global market, what are the changes on the demand and supply? We’ve learnt that the increment of the global demand exceeded the increment of proved reserves, so will the excess production capacity be improved or intensified in the next few years?
33.
Yes. Could you please share your ideas about the global crude oil market?
34.
In 2015, the consumption of oil was 70% higher than the newly-explored reserves of that year; in 2019, the excess rate was over 80%. Do you still think that the supply will not fall short of demand?
35.
How do you compare the exploitation cost of shale oil with traditional crude oil?
36.
Will the exploitation cost of shale oil go down?
37.
To what level the cost will drop in the next 3-5 years?
38.
It seems that the US has been exploiting shale oil on a large scale, but China has yet to start. Is that so?
39.
Why is it difficult to exploit shale oil? What makes its production volume not enough?
40.
As we know, the decreasing rate of shale oil wells is much higher than that of traditional ones. How long the production life of a shale oil well is?
41.
What do you mean by 4 million barrels per day?
42.
What do you think of the future trends and opportunities that China’s oil and gas enterprises acquire oil fields and do offshore M&A deals?
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