Specialist
Former director at Wm Morrison Supermarkets plc
Agenda
- Growth, shopping frequency, pricing and inflationary trends for Q1 2022 vs Q4 and Q3 2021
- Competitive landscape and market share movements given current consumer shopping habits
- Food price and labour inflation impacts in addition to supply chain challenges
- Q2 2022 outlook, highlighting continued PE interest in the sector
Questions
1.
What do you think the approximate ex-fuel like-for-like sales growth – or even possible decline – will be for the UK grocery retail industry in Q1 2022?
2.
How do you think the growth rate through Q1 2022 compares to Q4 2021? We also had Omicron in 2021.
3.
How do you think the QoQ growth translates into the trend around average spend and average basket size through Q1 2022?
4.
What has the general performance been across store categories during Q1 2022? You touched on online. How do these trends you mentioned translate into store categories?
5.
In aggregate, how would you describe the level of pricing and promotion across the industry during Q1 2022? How does this compare to what we saw in Q4 2021?
6.
Are there any particular categories where pricing promotion has notably accelerated or reduced?
7.
Are any retailers leading the change in the trend of pricing promotion during Q1 2022?
8.
How would you describe the level of cost price inflation that we’ve seen during Q1 2022? How does that compare to what we saw in Q4 2021?
9.
Do any cost buckets or food categories stand out where you’ve seen inflation accelerating in Q1 2022?
10.
Are there any cost buckets or food categories where inflation has started to decelerate vs Q4 2021?
11.
Do you expect any change in gross margins for the big retailers during Q1 2022?
12.
Do you expect any change within EBIT margins for the sector in Q1 2022?
13.
What market share developments have you seen in Q1 2022? Obviously we’ve seen some changes in the last three months.
14.
What do you think the explanation is for the discounters’ recent return to market share growth?
15.
What will be the key like-for-like drivers over the next 3-12 months? How could grocers grow like-for-likes in this environment?
16.
How do you expect frequency and basket sizes to evolve in the next three quarters of 2022, given what you mentioned is happening in Q1 2022?
17.
How do you see pricing trending over the next 3-12 months?
18.
Do you think retailers will be able to maintain the GPM [gross profit margin] and continue passing price on through 2022, given what you mentioned on the price side? Alternatively, do you think a time will come where they or the supplier will have to take some pain themselves?
19.
We’ve heard a lot about the 10-15% price gap between the discounters and the big four – Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury’s and Morrisons. Do you think this could be maintained over the next 3-9 months of 2022?
20.
Do you see the sector’s margin lines maintaining the kind of trends you outlined in Q1 2022 as we move through 2022?
21.
Who would you say could be the key market share winners and losers over the next nine months?
22.
Do you expect any further PE activity in the grocery market through 2022?
