Senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Natural gas market supply, demand and storage dynamics
- Russia sanctions’ impact on European energy supply outlook
- Nord Stream 2 cancellation and Germany’s energy strategy
- Alternative energy sources including nuclear, renewables and LNG (liquefied natural gas) plans, highlighting potential impacts of current environment on long-term energy transition targets
Where do we stand today when looking at global energy markets and the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
We’ve seen bans on Russian oil imports from the UK and US. You indicated prevalent self-sanctioning as well. How significant is this for the broader market, and how would complete sanctions on Russian oil change the dynamics at play?
The impact is larger in Europe where oil is around 20% of total imports. Russia responded to some discussions of embargoes on oil by threatening to cut-off gas supplies through Nord Stream 1. How credible do you think that is? How is it playing into the thought process surrounding direct energy sanctions?
Could you discuss the potential ramifications if Russia did restrict or shut down supply of natural gas to Europe through Nord Stream 1?
Storage has been below average levels for the past year and I think it’s around 29% of storage in Europe full. What are your thoughts on how storage levels have developed and whether Europe might look to draw on some of those reserves or fill them over the long term?
How might people be looking at the gas market and figuring out how to manage some of the price volatility in the near term? Could you explain the mechanisms or policies that you would point to in managing prices?
What might be the gap between the IEA’s plan to remove around 50bcm of Russian gas and the European Commission’s REPowerEU, which is targeting a reduction of around 100bcm? How feasible do you think either plan is?
How might production from Russia trend with western companies pulling out of the country and it being difficult to find buyers?
Do you think there’s any impact on the amount Russia is able to produce based on capital or a lack of technical capabilities?
The European Commission’s goal is to replace 50bcm of Russian gas with LNG. Are there any new projects that might move towards FID [final investment decision]? How might the LNG market develop?
What’s your take on Europe’s ability to attract and distribute LNG with the infrastructure in place today?
How do you expect the current crisis and natural gas dynamics to play into the longer-term targets for energy transition and the speed at which some of those targets might come forward?
How do you think countries are addressing renewable energy and even nuclear, which has re-entered the discussion? How would a faster or more emphatic focus on energy transition look in those segments?
The EU has highlighted trying to reach 90% of storage capacity filled by October 1 2022. Do you think this is achievable when looking at natural gas dynamics at play and especially if there is supply disruption from Russia?
To what extent is reducing dependence on Russian natural gas in the short term tied to consumption cuts? Would you expect demand to decline in any segments?
What will you be keeping track of around the industry? What potential ramifications of the energy dynamics do you think will be important to monitor?
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