Specialist
Former Department Manager at Volkswagen AG
Agenda
- Daimler's (ETR: DAI) volume outlook and product portfolio analysis, including pricing dynamics in light of BEV (battery electric vehicle) penetration growth
- Competitive analysis of Mercedes vs Audi (ETR: NSU) vs BMW (ETR: BMW) and the threat of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)
- Strength of Mercedes’ EV platform and software, highlighting insourcing vs outsourcing activity
- Unit economics analysis in light of EV rollout
Questions
1.
What are your rough expectations for Daimler and Mercedes-Benz’s 2021 volume growth vs 2019, considering the potential recovery from coronavirus?
2.
You alluded to growth in new energy vehicles, so PHEVs [plug-in hybrid electric vehicles] and BEVs [battery electric vehicles]. What is Daimler’s likely volume split for ICE [internal combustion engine] vs PHEV vs BEV models?
3.
How do you expect Daimler’s PHEV and BEV share to grow in 2022-25?
4.
How realistic is Mercedes’ target of 50% EV [electric vehicle] share by 2030?
5.
What do you think is missing from Mercedes’ US product portfolio?
6.
To what extent do you think Daimler’s product road map addresses the gaps in its US product portfolio?
7.
How do you think the semiconductor shortage will impact Daimler’s volumes?
8.
What do the potential supply issues mean for Daimler’s margins? The Mercedes S-Class, for example, usually achieves a higher margin.
9.
How do you think Mercedes should prioritise models in light of the semiconductor shortage?
10.
What would be Daimler’s typical minimum viable units for a new model?
11.
You mentioned Daimler prioritising BEVs to avoid CO2 penalties, but these models are less profitable. How might BEV prioritisation and fewer S-Class and EQS models due to the complex ECU [electronic control unit] structure impact Mercedes’ profitability in 2021?
12.
How much of a threat is battery supply to Daimler’s EV growth?
13.
How competitive do you think Mercedes’ product road map is vs BMW, Audi and Tesla’s?
14.
How competitive is Mercedes’ EQS vs Tesla’s Model S or Y, Audi’s e-Tron or any of the BMW product suite?
15.
You suggested that the EQS will drive Mercedes’ volumes. Which models do you think will drive the BEV share?
16.
What volume can we expect for Mercedes’ EQS and S-Class models, considering the S-Class historically peaked at around 100,000 units per year?
17.
Could you explain how the EQS customer profile differs from that of the S-Class?
18.
What is the threat to Mercedes’ EV growth from luxury brands such as AML [Aston Martin Lagonda], Porsche, Rolls-Royce and Bentley?
19.
How technologically competitive are Daimler’s in-development EVA [Electric Vehicle Architecture] and MMA [Mercedes-Benz Modular Architecture] platforms vs Volkswagen and Tesla’s platforms?
20.
How confident are you in Mercedes’ software capabilities and its ability to roll out a competitive proprietary software system?
21.
Do you think Mercedes’ system can be unique and competitive vs Tesla and Volkswagen’s software, even with a partnership?
22.
What BEV activity do you expect to be in-housed vs outsourced across OEMs [original equipment manufacturers]?
23.
How do margins compare in BEV vs PHEV vs ICE models for a luxury OEM such as Mercedes?
24.
How will Mercedes’ shift onto the EVA and MMA platforms from the current architecture impact the BEV margin profile?
