Specialist
Senior executive at CrusingStore
Agenda
- Cruise industry operating environment and potential near-term headwinds
- Booking pattern shift risks and impacts of recent CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) COVID-19 testing updates
- Competitive dynamics – Carnival (NYSE: CCL), Norwegian Cruise (NYSE: NCLH) and Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL)
Questions
1.
What is your H2 2022 outlook for the cruise industry?
2.
How would you frame the risk of a potential recession for the industry? Are there any scenarios we could outline, or some consumer behaviours that will begin to show up or have already shown up over H1 2022 that could bleed into H2?
3.
I’m assuming travel agencies are a fairly good proxy for the cruise industry. Can you approximate the volume travel agencies are potentially driving for operators?
4.
Do you see any shift in the operators looking to potentially disintermediate the travel agents at all, given that can be a burdensome cost in these times?
5.
How does inflation impact the average cruise customer and the operators? Do you have any scenarios in mind as to how you see this playing out?
6.
Can you provide more context on the pricing environment and how you potentially see operators’ wherewithal to pass along some elevated pricing to a weaker consumer, especially given elevated bunker fuel pricing?
7.
What are your thoughts on the gap between the cost of a cruise vacation and a land-based vacation, which I think Norwegian Cruise Line management called out during its analyst calls? Why is there such a gap that has potentially widened vs pre-pandemic?
8.
How has pricing for the luxury segment held up vs mass-market cruising?
9.
What is your H2 2022-23 outlook for cruise industry supply?
10.
Are you potentially concerned about industry oversupply longer term in terms of ALBDs [available lower birth days]?
11.
How concerned should one be for pent-up demand for cruising potentially waning near term?
12.
Can you clarify your outlook for when you think cruise ships could return to over 100% occupancy and how much yield operators might need to sacrifice to achieve this occupancy?
13.
All major operators are reporting exceptionally strong onboard spending. How sustainable is that pattern and what should we attribute that strength to?
14.
You mentioned some uncertainty regarding vaccinations and we saw recent guidance from the CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] on testing requirements. Do you have any thoughts and observations on booking patterns, particularly on the back of these CDC guidance updates?
15.
How much of an impact is there with the CDC recently announcing it’s dropping its voluntary programme to monitor cruise ships? What are the implications of this?
16.
What is the hesitation for operators regarding mandating vaccination proof? They seem to be missing out on a number of consumers that are waiting for this to be lifted so they can cruise again.
17.
What are your thoughts on sourcing passengers and the significance of internationally sourced cruisers, especially for US-departing cruises? What was the trend pre-pandemic? What percentage did internationally sourced passengers contribute to volume, as well as beyond just ticket pricing?
18.
Operators are also marketing the promotions. Do you have any thoughts on the promotional activity each operator is pushing currently?
19.
Are consumers potentially a lot more hesitant to book earlier, because they know they’ll likely get a promotion pushed or a deal for waiting to the last minute?
20.
Which of the big three operators is best-positioned to navigate a recession?
21.
What are your thoughts on Viking and how it’s positioned vs ocean cruise operators?
22.
Carnival recently started rolling out a bundling strategy. How well is that going?
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