Specialist
Former executive at Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc
Agenda
- Volume assumptions for Aston Martin Lagonda (LON: AML) in 2022-25, discussing drivers across models
- Pricing dynamics including sustainability of elevated ASPs
- Aston Martin Lagonda's EV (electric vehicle) strategy – Mercedes (ETR: DAI) partnership and penetration expectations for BEVs (battery electric vehicles) and PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles)
- Profitability and cash dynamics – material cost inflation, margin expectations and CAPEX requirements
Questions
1.
What is your outlook for unit volume for AML, if we project forward from 2022 to 2025?
2.
Aston Martin Lagonda reached 6,100-6,200 units in 2021. You mentioned for 2022 you’re expecting 6,500-7,000, is that correct?
3.
What do you think is wrong with the current model line-up?
4.
DBX has been the key volume growth driver. What is the perception in the market regarding the 707 in your view, particularly if we were to compare it to the Urus and the Bentayga?
5.
What changes are required within the DBX model to drive growth?
6.
There is obviously a mild hybrid facelift in China in particular. How successful do you think that model could be?
7.
How has the DBX performed more broadly in China? I know that’s a key market for this model.
8.
What scope is there to bring this mild hybrid vehicle outside of the Asian market into Europe and the US? Is that an option for Aston Martin?
9.
How much more appealing or attractive are the Lamborghini Urus and the Bentley Bentayga models vs Aston Martin Lagonda according to the customer? What are the key differences that would make the Urus or the Bentayga more attractive vs the DBX or the DBX 707?
10.
It’s interesting you say the DBX is in need of a new power-train, because the Urus, which is, I think, to a certain degree, the leader in the market, still doesn’t have an electrified power-train. Why do you think the DBS is in need of one when the Urus is able to sustain volumes?
11.
Could you expand on where you think the key limitations are on the new Vantage V12 vs the competition?
12.
Why do you think that Aston Martin struggles with its residual values? What are the key drivers behind that?
13.
You mentioned the DB11 being an ageing vehicle. What could really replace the DB11? Will it need to be replaced?
14.
One thing we haven’t spoken about is the specials which are crucial in terms of profitability for the business. What is your outlook in terms of volumes within the specials?
15.
To what extent do you think the demand for specials is declining across the sector? Is this a bubble that could burst?
16.
What is the path to 10,000 models? What would the key changes be and could you summarise what needs to happen within the product pipeline to reach this 10,000 number?
17.
The core ASPs improved to GBP 150,000 in 2021. How much headroom do you think there is in 2022 to increase this?
18.
When the models are refreshed in 2023, what do you think is a potential impact on average selling prices in line with those refreshers?
19.
Do you have a figure in mind when you think about the price increase that is required to continue with the current levels of profitability per model?
20.
We’ve spoken about electrification already, but what are your expectations for the timeline and the approach to which models are being electrified within the portfolio?
21.
What do you think are the advantages for Mercedes in terms of owning Aston Martin vs just being in a JV with Aston Martin?
22.
You’ve spoken about the sharing of the EV tech. How competitive is the Mercedes EV platform that Aston Martin was using?
23.
When the models are launched, let’s say in 2024-2025, what is the expected volume contribution from the hybrids and your electric models?
24.
I think there are ambitions to get to 90% battery electric or electrified power-train by 2030. How realistic do you think that is, just based on the current trajectory?
25.
You mentioned the capital intensity of the EV rollout, but how do you think about CAPEX requirements for this shift at Aston Martin Lagonda?
26.
How could Aston Martin Lagonda reach its target of 25% adjusted EBITDA margins from current margins?
27.
If we take Project Horizon, what do you see as the key buckets of cost reduction, further to what has already been achieved?
28.
What do you think are the key components that will lead to improved first-time engineering?
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