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Interview Synopsis

Tesla – global EV industry update & volume production outlook

  • Public Equity
  • Consumer
  • North America

Despite growing competition in the electric vehicle (EV) market, Tesla continues to dominate, a former divisional leader at the company told Third Bridge Forum.

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Tesla continues to out-drive competitors as EV market grows

In the Interview – which began with an overview of upcoming trends in the EV market – the specialist spoke in detail about Tesla’s global market share, expansion of gigafactories in the mid-term, supply chain issues, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s 2030 target.

Growing momentum in the EV market is being driven by administrations around the globe, the specialist said. Government policies such as the US’s Build Back Better initiative are “helping the industry grow” by building more infrastructure – such as charging points – and for Tesla, this “is only going to help and accelerate their expansion plans,” the specialist said.

In particular, the specialist sees Tesla expanding in China, Europe and the US, both in terms of upscaling production and cornering more of the market. The specialist said they expect Tesla to open at least four more gigafactories by 2030 in these markets, as part of plans to meet Musk’s goal of 20 million units by 2030. 

How achievable that goal is is debatable, with history suggesting “his numbers are always a little bit off, maybe by 50%, and maybe the timings by, also, at least 3- 5 years”, the specialist said. But if the demand is there, we’re told that Tesla “is absolutely able to achieve that”.

Upscaling production at its gigafactories in Austin, TX, Fremont, CA, Berlin and Shanghai would be a prerequisite to meeting Musk’s goal, the specialist said. This is proving a challenge in Austin and Fremont – with the latter “meeting its capacity limitations” – but less so in Shanghai.

Supply chain issues involving semiconductors and batteries could also derail plans to hit this goal, although the specialist said Tesla was better placed than most OEMs to deal with any shortage. Tesla designs and controls the supply chain of chips themselves, the specialist added, and this gives it the ability to “smell or foresee” any potential shortages – something other OEMs do not do.

Over the next 12-18 months, Tesla will focus on “execution, execution [and] expansions,” the success of which will show just “how good of a company they are,” the specialist concluded.

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