Rivian Automotive – Post IPO Analysis and Growth Outlook

Changing vehicle ownership and autonomous vehicles drive Rivian forward

In the Interview, the specialist said these two trends are likely to grow over the next 15 years as road networks hit optimum car capacity. The change to trading, leasing or hiring cars rather than owning them will hit OEMs hardest, the specialist said, given their business models are tuned to selling large quantities of vehicles. 

The specialist told us OEMs are currently behind EV manufacturers in EV production but said these manufacturers have the “horsepower and the resources to catch up very quickly” – reaching parity with the likes of Rivian in 2-3 years. However, longer term, the specialist thinks large OEMs do not have the “agility and thoughtfulness” to adapt as the industry changes to incorporate different ownership models and greater autonomy. 

In contrast, Rivian is “very well placed” to manage this transition because it designs EVs “from the ground up”, with the EV economy and different ownership models in mind, we were told. After a challenging 2021, the specialist expects Rivian to stabilise in H2 2022, and grow “very quickly” over the next 2-3 years. The current manufacturing target of 25,000 vehicles in 2022 and 50,000 in 2023 is “paltry” compared to what they can achieve over the next 3-5 years, we heard, with the specialist expecting that a new manufacturing plant in Georgia will help it build 500,000 vehicles a year by the end of the decade. 

Rivian has stated it aims to acquire 10% of the EV market by 2030, the specialist said, and they were confident its “nimbleness” could help it achieve this target. The specialist said Rivian’s advantages come from good leadership and successful product launches – both of which sets it apart from other start-up EV automakers such as Lucid and Fisker. 

Meeting its manufacturing target of 25,000 vehicles by the end of the year will determine whether investors see Rivian as a “genuine automotive company”, according to the specialist. Failure to do so would not only hit its credibility, they said, but would also harm its efforts to harness the data needed to drive its technology forward – potentially slowing its development. 

The rollout of Rivian Amazon delivery vans is also another “important factor” in measuring the company’s success in the short term, according to the specialist. But overall, they were confident that both targets could be achieved. 

To access all the human insights in Third Bridge Forum’s Rivian Automotive – Post-IPO Analysis & Growth Outlook Interview, click here to view the full transcript.