The Long-term Impacts of African Swine Fever
While the Shandong Sanyang Tianan’s technical consultant’s sentiments matched Third Bridge’s regarding the increased demand for pork despite ASF outbreaks driving the commodity’s price up, she explained that demand for the protein would only increase by 5% annually. Comparatively, annual growth for seafood, beef and mutton is likely to increase by 15-20%, meaning the proportion of pork consumption would fall. She continued by noting the reasons for this shift.
China’s over-dependence on imports for pig breeds and pig feed, as well as its elevated pig mortality rates and high cost of labour, are increasing pig farming prices. The specialist called for China-based pig farmers to nurture native pig breeds to prevent the further spread of ASF and other diseases as “quality pig breeds can have exceptional resistance to diseases.” She reasoned that black pigs, a Chinese native species, did not experience a single case of ASF with imported breeds being far more affected than native livestock.
ASF has not left the specialist without hope, however; she explained that the outbreak has presented a unique opportunity for restructuring within the industry. The specialist also discussed cow farms in China, making suggestions for farmers operating in the area, as well as other potential avenues they could explore. She focused on the grass industry, highlighting its importance in animal husbandry and offered her opinions on the most lucrative areas to focus on.
To access all the human insights from Third Bridge’s Chinese Animal Husbandry Industry Analysis Interview, click below to view the full transcript.
The information used in compiling this document has been obtained by Third Bridge from experts participating in Forum Interviews. Third Bridge does not warrant the accuracy of the information and has not independently verified it. It should not be regarded as a trade recommendation or form the basis of any investment decision.
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