Interview Synopsis

ASML – lithography market outlook and high-NA technology limits

  • Public Equity
  • TMT
  • Europe

ASML Holding NV reported better-than-expected third-quarter sales and profits last week. However, new restrictions introduced by the US on exporting semiconductors to China, inflationary pressures and ongoing supply chain challenges could see the company revise its 2025 revenue guidance down from EUR 24-30bn to EUR 22-26bn, according to a former manager at the company.

What next for ASML after high-NA lithography?

In an Interview with Third Bridge Forum, the specialist told us that ASML has a roadmap for the next 10 years but after this point its plans are unclear. They told us they were not surprised by AMSL CTO Martin van den Brink’s comment that high-NA (numerical aperture) lithography machines could be the last economically viable to hit the market. Whilst hyper-NA is a logical follow-up to high-NA machines, the specialist said there are other methods for process node shrinking. These include working with wavelengths to more “science-fiction like ideas” related to particle accelerators.

The specialist said China should have been a growth market for ASML. However, they told us “continuous” regulatory changes by the US have dampened the company’s growth forecasts in the East Asian country. The specialist said the basis for a US ban on companies like ASML selling deep ultraviolet machines to China is “limited” but could happen. 

On high-NA systems, the specialist revealed that the technology will not be widespread for another 4-5 years. They also told us that the technological roadmap for high-NA systems could be 15 years, after which new technology would be required. The blueprint for this future technology is “vague”, according to the specialist. However, they said ASML has a talented team that could develop it – as well as sufficient funding to acquire a new competitor if it were to innovate the technology. 

Click here to access all the human insights in Third Bridge Forum’s “ASML – lithography market outlook and high-NA technology limits” Interview.

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The information used in compiling this document has been obtained by Third Bridge from experts participating in Forum Interviews. Third Bridge does not warrant the accuracy of the information and has not independently verified it. It should not be regarded as a trade recommendation or form the basis of any investment decision.

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