Specialist
Former director at Volkswagen AG
Agenda
- Volkswagen’s (ETR: VOW3) ability to outperform the market by region through Q4 2020-22
- Volkswagen’s EV (electric vehicle) strategy vs peers' – Peugeot (PAR: UG), Fiat Chrysler (TAA: FCA), Volvo (STO: VOLV B) and Renault (PAR: RNO)
- EV economics and margin dynamics
Questions
1.
What are your H2 2020 volume recovery expectations for Volkswagen? To what extent might a second coronavirus wave in Europe hamper its recovery?
2.
How do you expect volumes trends to differ across Europe, the US and China in H2 2020 or 2020 overall?
3.
The Volkswagen brand has experienced underlying issues in the US for several years. What key challenges remain in the US? Does the pandemic limit the turnaround possibility in 2021 further?
4.
I believe over 90% of Volkswagen’s sales in North America are produced in the US. How credible is the company’s US localisation strategy?
5.
Your outlook for Volkswagen in China seems relatively positive, given the return of demand. What led Volkswagen’s share gains in the region in H1 2020? Do you expect this trend to continue throughout H2?
6.
Is China’s governmental strategy shift likely to present an EV credit volume challenge in 2021?
7.
How confident are you that Volkswagen’s ability to take share from other OEMs will be sustainable in the region?
8.
What is the rough market share of the Volkswagen brand in China?
9.
The volume price mix benefited the overall results of the Volkswagen brand. To what extent would you expect this to continue across the remainder of 2020 into 2021?
10.
What are your expectations for Volkswagen’s ID.3? How well-received was this model across each region? Do you think the company can reach its H2 2020 60,000 volume sales target?
11.
What is your early understanding of how the ID.4 has been received? Do you think it will be accepted in the US, given that this is a key proponent of the company’s turnaround strategy, and more widely across Europe and China?
12.
Do you think the ID.4 will cannibalise ID.3 sales in Europe?
13.
Who do you think the ID.4 target customer is? Which models does the ID.4 directly compete with?
14.
You mentioned Tesla as a key competitive model to the ID.4. What is the key competitive step for the ID.4 or more widely for the brand?
15.
What are your early volume expectations for the ID.4 in 2021 and beyond?
16.
To what extent might battery cell availability limit volume growth potential?
17.
Infrastructure, or charging points, is another challenge for EV uptake. Do you think the infrastructure in developing countries is sufficient to support EV uptake?
18.
The Volkswagen Group has conducted a major cost-cutting initiative due to pandemic-related volume declines, which has impacted the business at large. How do you expect this to impact the company’s roadmap strategy? Could any model launch dates be pushed back?
19.
A key proponent of the EV roll-out’s success among customers is positive movement in the cost of ownership. How do you expect Volkswagen’s EV total cost of ownership to trend vs ICE models?
20.
How might EV volume growth, and thus adoption growth, impact the residual value market for EVs? How might this limit uptake?
21.
You mentioned Volkswagen’s share of EV vehicles by region earlier. How do you expect its share to develop over the next five years? I know it targets 25% by 2025.
22.
Volkswagen’s MEB [modular electric drive matrix] platform is crucial to the success of the company’s EV strategy. What are your thoughts on this platform and its capabilities?
23.
What battery production and availability assumptions did Volkswagen bake into its ID.3 and ID.4 volume sales outlooks? Are any of those challenged, given the current outlook?
24.
You mentioned Volkswagen’s third-party model, which is interesting because in-housing is being increasingly adopted, particularly by Tesla. What do you think Volkswagen should produce itself vs via third parties? Do you think the company should bring battery production in-house?
25.
You mentioned that skills around batteries are difficult to develop. Are there any transferable skills from the ICE model?
26.
Volkswagen has entered several JVs, such as with Northvolt. Does this competitively advantage Volkswagen?
27.
How competitive is Volkswagen’s MEB platform vs offerings from non EV-nativeOEMs such as PSA-FCA and Renault-Nissan?
28.
Geely is claiming a new architecture with a drive range of up to 700km and that may have a favourable price. How realistic is that? Does this pose a threat to Volkswagen’s EV roll-out?
29.
How competitive is Volkswagen vs other European OEMs in fast charging?
30.
Volkswagen’s partnerships such as its one with Ford, in which it supplies the batteries, helps with scale. Could you foresee a model in which some OEMs provide the platform and other, smaller, OEMs add branding and design?
31.
How are margins impacted by the EV roll-out?
32.
At what point might EV and ICE margins equalise, factoring in the CO2 cost?
