Specialist
Former Senior Executive, Tyson Ventures at Tyson Foods Inc
Agenda
- Demand and supply impacts of the coronavirus pandemic
- Competitive landscape update – Beyond Meat (NASDAQ: BYND), Impossible Foods, Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN), Smithfield Foods (HKG: 0288) and Perdue Farms
- Key industry and innovation trends
- Mid-term structural growth and profitability outlook
Questions
1.
Can we start by sizing and segmenting the US plant-based meat market? Could you divide it by raw material providers or distribution channels, and outline some of the key players and their market share?
2.
How have dynamics evolved between yellow pea protein and soy? To confirm, is yellow pea the bulk of the plant-based category today?
3.
Can you outline the market share split across the three key yellow pea protein suppliers you highlighted – Roquette, Puris and Dow?
4.
Can you break down the branded players in the market across Beyond Meat and its key competitors?
5.
Is it fair to say Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods still dominate the category in the US despite these new entrants? Where does the large CPG companies’ market share sit?
6.
How do you think the US market is split between traditional retail and foodservice?
7.
Can you outline the key historical demand-side dynamics and consumer behavioural trends pertaining to plant-based meats?
8.
How do you expect the double-digit pre-coronavirus category growth you outlined to evolve?
9.
Can you describe initial consumer behavioural changes as the stay-at-home orders were effected? This is across the demand side and the supply side in which you alluded to constraints in traditional meat products.
10.
It sounds as if growth rates in plant-based alternatives have picked up beyond that pre-coronavirus double- digit run rate, and that plant-based has taken more share vs animal protein. Is it fair to attribute this as both supply- and demand-driven, even if you suggest that demand may have been slightly misguided?
11.
Has this been an acceleration in growth across existing plant-based alternative protein product lines, or have there been changing consumer preferences within that uplift of total growth?
12.
There has been stocking up on much larger pack sizes across the rest of grocery. Have you noted the same in this category?
13.
Have Beyond and Impossible been able to meet that pickup in demand for volume, or have they suffered their own supply-side constraints?
14.
Do you think some of the CPG players who moved into alternative meats have also participated in this pickup in growth?
15.
How should we think about private label in this category? Has that also participated in this pickup? Is it enough of a category itself, to register?
16.
Were there notable changes in promotional patterns during lockdown? You alluded to two plant-based Beyond patties costing the same as 12 animal protein patties, USD 5.99. Did that price gap change, given the supply shortages?
17.
Has the e-commerce category also participated in that growth pickup, given the pickup in e-commerce across grocery?
18.
Do you think there have been any notable winners or losers in market share, or that Beyond and Impossible have just risen with the tide and the CPG players?
19.
Can you outline the margin or mix dynamics for the branded suppliers during the pandemic? It sounds like pricing has come under pressure. Presumably, this is good news for volumes but less good news for margins.
20.
What is your 2020 US market outlook for these plant-based alternatives? It will be interesting to note if some of the recent pre-coronavirus and lockdown trends you alluded to remain in place.
21.
How might consumer behaviour around plant-based be impacted if we move into a recessionary environment with high unemployment, given the price points relative to animal protein?
22.
What is your outlook for plant-based pricing in 2020, appreciating this will be tied to the depth of recovery or recession? You alluded to prospects of a price war in plant-based
23.
Can you elaborate on price sensitivity within plant-based in the US? How price-elastic is the category to its own pricing or the sensitivity around traditional animal protein?
24.
You alluded to the cost of goods environment not experiencing much of a change. A lot of these branded operators have contracts in place. Is that also your view for the rest of 2020?
25.
Do you think there will be any notable market share winners or losers within plant-based, given the impact of coronavirus in the course of this year?
26.
What might structurally change within the category throughout 2020 due to consumer behaviour?
27.
Do you think Beyond and Impossible will have to shift their ongoing strategy following the coronavirus, whether in their product mix or approach to SKUs?
28.
You outlined an uptick to a 20%-plus CAGR for plant-based coming out of coronavirus. Do you think that is a sustainable growth rate over the next 3-5 years? Would you expect the growth to come from new adopters, or existing consumers who may want to extend their repertoire or increase occasion?
29.
Do you think the prospect of cell-based protein is the biggest risk to players such as Beyond and Impossible?
30.
How far away do you think we are from the commercialisation of cell-based protein?
31.
How do you expect penetration rates for the plant-based category to develop over the next five years?
32.
Can we pinpoint Beyond’s and Impossible’s competitive strengths and weaknesses? How should we think about differences in quality or product range offering, brand strength, marketing or route to market?
33.
Is there a winner you would highlight between Beyond and Impossible?
