Specialist
Former Divisional VP at Teva Pharmaceuticals Ltd
Agenda
- Levers to protect Copaxone sales from ongoing decline
- Austedo product review and peak sales discussion
- Ajovy product review and peak sales discussion
- Return to growth potential – wider product opportunities for Teva
Questions
1.
The big story is Copaxone’s decline. How would you assess Teva’s ability to fill the gap from Copaxone’s decline with the growth of new branded products?
2.
The market seems to broadly agree with your view that Ajovy and Austedo will not meet peak sales for Copaxone. Considering Teva’s fixed debt following the Actavis acquisition, what is the route that you see to filling the gap, if not Austedo and Ajovy?
3.
How can Teva generate enough cash to service debt in the short-to-mid-term? Does it need to acquire someone else, or new products? Copaxone was around USD 4bn peak sales, now declining 40% YoY, and we agree that Ajovy and Austedo will not fill the gap. Herzuma and Truxima look interesting, but again probably only a few hundred million, and fasinumab is a while away.
4.
Focusing on Copaxone now, what is the market value opportunity in MS [multiple sclerosis] and how would you segment it?
5.
How do you segment the different types of treatment available for MS?
6.
Can we explore the overall market share across glatiramer acetates? How do you see that changing?
7.
Within glatiramer acetates, how much further market share could Mylan and Sandoz steal from Copaxone?
8.
Why has Copaxone been hit hard in the US vs relative stability in Europe and internationally?
9.
Are you aware of any further generic entries within glatiramer acetates that could threaten Copaxone, in addition to Mylan and Sandoz?
10.
How much pressure do you see on list and net pricing for Copaxone?
11.
To tie up, you believe that Copaxone will maintain 40-50% of glatiramer acetate market share. What could alter your forecast either up or down?
12.
Turning to Austedo, what is your rough estimate of peak sales potential and time to peak sales? I have seen a range of forecasts.
13.
Moving to the possible deutetrabenazine target indications and the relative target population sizes. Do you have any insight into how attractive Austedo’s opportunity is for Huntington’s disease [HD] or tardive dyskinesia [TD] vs other hopeful indications?
14.
Austedo faces potential competition from Neurocrine’s Ingrezza, Valeant’s Xenazine and also some tetrabenazine generics. How do you see market share for TD and HD developing?
15.
What is your view of Ajovy’s peak sales and time to peak sales? Does it match the USD 500m consensus?
16.
Teva had to abandon Ajovy’s phase 3 for episodic cluster headaches last week. Do you think that meaningfully sets back the drug’s growth story?
17.
Examining Teva’s ability to properly invest in commercialisation of Austedo and Ajovy, clearly there are a number of cost control procedures in place. Do you think that Teva still has the commercial infrastructure to properly execute these opportunities?
18.
You mentioned some turnover at Teva. What could be the impact here, in terms of key personnel exits over the last couple of years?
19.
Returning to threats to Copaxone, I think I saw some news flow about a generic entry from Pfizer, which is apparently based on clinical trial data. Could that move the needle for Copaxone?
20.
Do you have any concluding thoughts on Teva’s branded opportunity?
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