Specialist
Manager at European auto and EV manufacturer
Agenda
- Mercedes-Benz Group (ETR: MBG) volume outlook by region and by powertrain amid supply challenges and EV growth
- Input cost inflation and implications for pricing dynamics and ASP growth
- Product portfolio analysis, focusing on EV volume growth and competitiveness vs peers
- Operating margin outlook in light of cost inflation and EV transition
Questions
1.
Mercedes-Benz Group, formerly Daimler, reported 530,000 cars sold in Q3 FY22, a 38% YoY increase. What is your Q4 FY22 outlook? What is driving this performance for Mercedes?
2.
You characterised Mercedes’ Q3 FY22 performance as being very good. Should we expect this level of performance to continue through Q4 FY22 and into FY23? What’s your full-year volume outlook?
3.
You mentioned Mercedes being able to remedy supply issues in Q3 FY22. When should we expect supply constraints around semiconductors to ease?
4.
How is China’s zero-COVID-19 policy impacting Mercedes’ China-based volumes?
5.
What’s your 2023-25 volume growth outlook for Mercedes globally?
6.
Are there any regional variations in your volume growth outlook?
7.
Could you elaborate on your outlook for the market in China? You mentioned Mercedes facing some macro headwinds and internal competition within that market.
8.
I understand Mercedes is targeting a 60% mix of premium models. How realistic is this? The company’s Q3 FY22 results showed it hovering in the 16-20% range. How do you expect the luxury model mix to grow relative to total volume?
9.
ASPs have been elevated in the constrained supply environment. How much headroom is there to further improve ASPs in 2023, particularly towards the end of the year? Will Mercedes have to increase discounting levels once industry supply chain issues normalise, as some peers have done?
10.
Tesla recently cut prices in China by 9%. Is Mercedes’ pricing process sustainable in the country, or do you expect prices to be revised down in a similar manner?
11.
What core levers can Mercedes pull to leverage higher ASPs in China over the next 2-3 years? What is a realistic ASP for the company?
12.
What’s the roll-out level of Mercedes’ ADAS [advanced driver-assistance systems]? How many models are expected to have Level 3 ADAS?
13.
How is Mercedes’ BEV [battery EV] and HEV [hybrid EV] share likely to develop between now and 2025?
14.
How competitive are Mercedes’ EV models in price, range and charge times vs Audi, Tesla and China-based players?
15.
Should we expect Mercedes to also commit to 800V batteries in the near future?
16.
You mentioned Mercedes having a higher cost structure than its competitors. What drives this? Is it due to battery costs or is it a result of the company having a more premium, luxury offering?
17.
You mentioned inflation in raw materials. What are your assumptions on how that will trend? How much of an impact will it have on Mercedes and how much can be passed on to customers through price increases?
18.
What is your realistic outlook for return on sales for the company in 2022?
19.
Mercedes has very strong net liquidity levels, EUR 23bn I believe at the end of Q3 FY22. How do you think Mercedes will use this extra cash? Could we see share buy-backs, a special dividend or an investment in a lithium mining company, for example?
